- US Crude is trading at $70 per barrel as of June 29, 2026, within an intraday range of $68.47–71.50.
- Brent Crude is quoted at $73.17 per barrel on the same date, within an intraday range of $71.74–75.27, maintaining its usual premium over WTI.
- Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Oil prices are currently under pressure due to shifting supply conditions, particularly following the mid-June ceasefire agreement between the USA and Iran. This agreement included a 60-day truce and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that previously pushed Brent prices above $120 per barrel. Reports noted that as of June 29, 2026, Iran and the USA have agreed to pause attacks and restart discussions regarding the strait.
The supply outlook has also been influenced by OPEC+ policies. The coalition approved its fourth consecutive production quota increase following the Hormuz closure, adding approximately 188,000 barrels per day for July, leading to cumulative increases close to 600,000 barrels per day since April. Earlier, OPEC+ had also cut its 2026 global demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day.
Market participants are keenly observing the actions of major shipping companies concerning the reopening of transport routes through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as whether the broader ceasefire agreement holds. Increased marine insurance premiums indicate ongoing uncertainty about how quickly these supply conditions will normalize.
Oil Outlook: The Impact of the USA-Iran Ceasefire
As of June 29, 2026, forecasts have been significantly downgraded in light of the ceasefire agreement signed on June 17. The deal and the intent to reopen the Strait of Hormuz reduced the supply risk premium, which had previously pushed Brent prices above $100 per barrel.
EIA June 2026 Report – Brent Quarterly Path
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent oil to average around $105 per barrel in June and July 2026, before dropping below $80 in the third quarter and falling to approximately $70 by year-end. The agency cites a projected global oil demand decline of 1.1 million barrels per day for 2026 and the expectation for flows through Hormuz to gradually resume in Q3 as key factors for the expected price drop in H2 2026.
Goldman Sachs Q4 2026 Revision – WTI and Brent
Goldman Sachs has revised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast down from $90 to $80 per barrel, and lowered its WTI forecast to $75 per barrel. The bank also outlined a downside scenario where Brent could fall to about $70 per barrel by the end of 2026 if the supply recovery occurs sooner than expected, citing limited storage capacity as a significant upward cushion.
Morgan Stanley Q3/Q4 2026 Revision – Brent
Morgan Stanley adjusted its Brent oil forecast, reducing its Q3 2026 estimate to $90 per barrel and its Q4 estimate to $80. This revision followed the U.S.-Iran breakthrough, prompting a reevaluation of supply recovery timelines. The bank mentions the anticipated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days post-ceasefire as a crucial variable compressing the risk premium that previously supported prices above $100 per barrel in May.
Citi Q3/Q4 2026 Revision – Brent
Citi has lowered its Brent oil forecast to $75 per barrel for Q3 2026 and $70 for Q4 2026, marking the most significant downgrade among the major banks. The bank has also reduced its 2027 average Brent forecast from $80 to $65 per barrel, pointing to expectations of a quicker than consensus normalization in Gulf supply and weaker global demand as combined downward factors.
Reuters Consensus – WTI and Brent Annual Averages
A Reuters survey of 33 economists and analysts indicates a consensus for a Brent annual average of $90.44 per barrel in 2026, an increase from $86.38 in April. WTI is expected to average $84.63 for the year. Respondents cite a slow recovery of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz and persistent supply chain disruptions as factors supporting this increased annual average. However, it is worth noting that the survey was conducted prior to the ceasefire agreement in mid-June, which altered short-term supply expectations.
Goldman Sachs 2027 Brent Revision – Longer-Term WTI Path
In a separate statement, Goldman Sachs has cut its average Brent forecast for 2027 from $80 to $75 per barrel. The bank noted that a faster-than-expected supply normalization coupled with weaker demand could push Brent towards $70 by late 2026 and approximately $60 in 2027, highlighting supply growth from returning barrels in the Gulf and OPEC+ quota increases of around 600,000 barrels per day since April as structural headwinds for the mid-term price path.
In conclusion, forecasts for WTI range from about $75 per barrel in Goldman Sachs’ Q4 projection to the low $70s in the EIA’s year-end path. Brent Q4 estimates span from $70 in Citi’s forecast to $80 in Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley’s projections, while the annual average surveys prior to the ceasefire remain above $84–90. Across all revisions since June 15, the accelerated normalization of Hormuz supplies has been identified as the key downward factor by analysts.
It is important to note that forecasts and projections from third parties are inherently uncertain as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Oil Prices: Technical Overview
Technical indicators for WTI and Brent suggest ongoing selling pressure, although oversold RSI values imply that the pace of recent declines should be monitored.
The Hull Moving Average (9) at $68.92 is the only bullish metric among the moving averages, suggesting that very short-term momentum might be attempting to stabilize around current levels. The 14-day RSI at 27.81 indicates an oversold condition, consistent with ongoing sell-offs. The ADX at 26.06 suggests an established trend rather than a directionless drift, indicating that the prevailing downward movement retains structural momentum despite oversold oscillator values.
In the event of a recovery, the classic pivot at $93.72 serves as the first significant resistance level. A daily close in that area would bring R1 at $101.10 into range. On the downside, S1 at $79.99 has already been breached, with S2 at $72.61 as the next nearby reference. Below this is the S3-zone near $51.50, which is the next classic support level if conditions deteriorate.
Similar to WTI, the Hull Moving Average (9) at $72.24 is the only constructive measure in the short term. Its proximity to the current price indicates that very short-term momentum may be attempting to establish a floor. The 14-day RSI at 29.06 is in the oversold range, while the ADX at 34.25 reflects a firmly established downward trend. This stronger trend strength measurement suggests that the prevailing movement has significant directional momentum.
In the event of a recovery, the classic pivot at $98.78 serves as the first substantial resistance level. A sustainable daily close toward this level would bring R1 at $107.64 into play. On the downside, S1 at $82.27 has already been breached, with S2 at $73.41 as the nearest reference just below the current spot. A loss of this level would bring S3 near $48.04 as the next classic support on the chart. The 200-day SMA at $78.34 is positioned above the spot and now acts as resistance instead of support, reinforcing the bearish structure.
This technical analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.
Oil Price History (2024–2026)
WTI and Brent have experienced significant fluctuations in the past two years. Prices initially declined during a prolonged supply-driven downturn before a major geopolitical disruption and its subsequent resolution reshaped the market in 2026.
US Crude (WTI)
The WTI price closed June 2024 at $81.43 per barrel, after entering a sustained decline in the latter half of 2024, ending the year at $71.69. This downward drift continued into 2025, characterized by ample global supply and weaker demand expectations. By December 31, 2025, WTI had fallen to $57.35, marking a roughly 20% loss for the calendar year.
The picture changed abruptly early in 2026. U.S. attacks on Iran triggered an intraday spike to $115.78 on March 9, before prices sharply retreated, testing the $103–$104 range again by late April amid ongoing conflicts.
The ceasefire agreement between the USA and Iran signed in mid-June began to erode the war premium. WTI dropped from $90.73 on June 1, 2026, to $70.02 on June 29, 2026, representing about a 22.1% increase over its closing price from December 2025 and 8.7% higher than its level on the same date a year prior.
