The most important events and reports on the economy, central banks and politics from the Dow Jones Newswires program
Industrial production of the Eurozone picked up again in April
Industrial production in the euro zone rose again in April. Factories rushed to fill orders from customers who wanted to avoid price increases and shortages caused by the Middle East conflict. Industrial production rose 0.1 percent from the previous month, compared with an upwardly revised 0.4 percent increase in March, the European Union’s statistics agency Eurostat said on Monday. The consensus of economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had expected an increase of 0.2 percent for April.
Nagel: ECB is keeping all options open for July
ECB Council member Joachim Nagel wants one despite the looming end of the Iran war Interest rate increase by the European Central Bank (ECB) in July cannot be ruled out. “Even if the Strait of Hormuz becomes navigable again soon, it will take months for oil supplies to return to normal,” he said at a conference, according to the published text of his speech. Production facilities in the region were partially damaged or put out of operation and reserves were reduced. “Price pressure is likely to rise again when fiscal policy measures to reduce energy prices expire. These are likely to have dampened the inflation rate in the euro area by 0.4 percentage points in May,” calculated the Bundesbank President.
Commerzbank: Another ECB interest rate increase likely
Commerzbank chief economist Jörg Krämer believes that a further interest rate increase by the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely despite the agreement on a framework agreement between Iran and the USA. In an analysis, Krämer points out that, according to surveys, companies have reacted to the increased energy prices and passed on the higher costs to their customers. Consumers’ longer-term inflation expectations have also risen slightly above the ECB’s target of 2 percent, the inflation rate is likely to hover around the 3 percent mark in the next few months and core inflation is likely to rise.
US-Iran peace agreement should ease immediate pressure to raise interest rates
The interim peace deal between the US and Iran is likely to ease the immediate pressure on central banks to raise interest rates, Capital Economics writes in a research note. “We had always expected the Fed and Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged this week – rather than following the lead of the ECB, which tightened policy last week – but that now looks all but certain,” said chief economist Neil Shearing. In emerging markets, a previously expected rate hike in Indonesia may not materialize, while the Czech central bank is also likely to leave rates unchanged. Nevertheless, the macroeconomic outlook remains a challenge.
Iran deal leaves key questions unanswered
Important questions remain unresolved in the agreement reached between Iran and the USA, writes Jörg Krämer from Commerzbank in a research note. During the 60-day negotiation phase of the agreement, issues such as Iran’s nuclear program would be resolved. “We expect a roller coaster ride of good and bad news over the next two months,” he says. For example, Hezbollah could resume shelling northern Israel, and a forceful Israeli response could then prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz again, Kraemer notes. However, the positive market reaction overnight means that previous expectations that oil prices would hover around the $100 mark could be lowered. The agreement limits downside risks to the economy, although meager growth of just 0.6 percent each is expected for Germany and the euro zone this year, he says.
US-Iran agreement not a complete return to the pre-conflict world
A US-Iran peace deal is not a complete return to the pre-conflict world, writes Tickmill Group analyst Patrick Munnelly in a research note. Although the deal is a risk-positive development and has sparked a strong rally in global stocks, oil prices are still above their February levels and inflation risks have not disappeared overnight, he notes. Even after the deal, markets were still pricing in Fed rate hikes of around 15 basis points, he notes. “This means that investors do not view the agreement as a complete macroeconomic reset,” says Munnelly, adding that investors maintained a more cautious view of inflation, labor market resilience and central bank decisions.
Oil prices at a crossroads – recovery in supply meets shifts in demand
There are three possible scenarios for oil markets, according to Barclays, as geopolitical risks ease following a deal between the US and Iran. In a bullish scenario, the normalization of trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a recovery in consumption and a replenishment of inventories, while logistical bottlenecks delay a full recovery in supply, driving up oil prices. A second, more balanced scenario envisages prices stabilizing after an initial decline as markets adjust to expectations of rising supply and a lower risk premium, the bank’s analysts said.
+++ Economic data +++
Eurozone/trade balance April deficit EUR 1.0 billion (previous year surplus EUR 8.7 billion)
Eurozone/Exports April +3.2%, imports +2.9% compared to previous month – seasonally adjusted
Eurozone/trade balance April seasonally adjusted surplus EUR 1.3 billion (March: surplus EUR 0.6 billion)
DJG/DJN/apo
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 15, 2026 07:30 ET (11:30 GMT)