When we pin a couple, there are two hopes. The first is to set ourselves to feel relatively calm in the continuation of the shot. The second is that the lowest cards of our pair come on the flop. However, percentage-wise speaking, how often does the second condition occur? Let’s find out
For many players it is difficult to pass a pair preflop. There are standard situations in which folding is absolutely correct. But do we know what the chances of finding an overcard on the flop are? If the answer is no then study our mirror carefully
FORMULA FOR PRECISE CALCULATION
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Mathematically speaking, when we have a pair in our hand, we need to know the number of cards left (50 since we only know our two). This number must be divided by cards in our favor and possible overcards. If for example we have a pair of 7s in our hand, what is the probability that the flop contains at least one card higher than 7? Turned “in reverse” we could also ask ourselves: how many times, on the flop, can our pair of sevens be an overpair? Whichever way you look at it, just calculate. With a pair of sevens there are still 7 higher cards in play (from 8 to ace). Each card has four suits so there are 28 unfavorable cards. We subtract 28 from 50 and we get 22 which represents the number of “good” cards for us, i.e. those from 7 onwards. How many different flops are there? Answer: 19,600, number that comes out of the formula that combines n! (factorial enne which in this case is 50, i.e. the cards left in the deck, 3 times! because each flop is a group of 6 cards which can be combined in 6 different ways since the exact order doesn’t matter. Once we reach 19,600, we need to know the “favorable” flops, i.e. those with cards from 7 onwards. The procedure is the same: n! becomes 22! while 3! obviously it doesn’t change. Now all we have to do is find the percentage of unfavorable flops: the formula is: 1- (one minus) favorable flops over total possible flops
OVERCARD PROBABILITY ON THE FLOP: THE TABLE
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It’s clear that not everyone will want to get involved. However, if you are curious, you know how to proceed for every single possible pair. AA is obviously excluded from the account because there are no possible overcards on the flop. Same thing, but in reverse for 22, 33 and 44. Here is the complete table with the probabilities of (at least one) overcard on the flop
May 31, 2026 (modified May 31, 2026 | 3:19 pm)
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