Ivo Daalder does not have to think long about the question of how serious the quarrel between Europe and the US is in NATO. “It is very serious. Something fundamental has been broken. Under Trump, the Americans no longer see the security of Europe as essential for the security of America.”
Indivisible security, indivisible security. It was the basis for Atlantic cooperation for eighty years: America defends Europe, a safe Europe is also good for America’s security. If people no longer believe in that, why should they hold on to each other any longer?
The Europeans, says Daalder, feel it too. Five major allies have opposed the US in the Iran war. Spain, Italy, France and the United Kingdom imposed varying restrictions on U.S. use of airspace and bases. Poland did not want to give up American Patriot anti-aircraft missiles for the Middle East. Germany was openly critical. “If the alliance were healthy, this would never have happened. It symbolizes how bad the situation is.”
Daalder was a speaker this week at the Next Gen Security Conference in the Hague Peace Palace, a new initiative of the Atlantic Commission and think tank Clingendael. He was born in The Hague and made a career in American diplomacy. He worked for President Clinton in the White House and was Obama’s ambassador to NATO (2009-2013).
In 2018 he published the book together with James M. Lindsay The Empty Throne – How America abdicates its role as world leader. For the first time in decades, there was a president in the White House who didn’t care about the rules-based world order that his predecessors had built. The new president also did not care for advice from specialists, but relied on his instincts. The authors, delicately: “He knew less, but he saw more.”
Under Trump, Americans no longer see the security of Europe as essential to the security of America
Daalder is still scathing about Trump. He calls the war in Iran “a strategic blunder of historic proportions.” But he is also critical of the European position in NATO and of NATO chief Mark Rutte.
European opposition in the Iran war has consequences. Daalder: “It has given Trump a reason to say: NATO is against us.”
After German criticism of the Iran war, Trump removed five thousand soldiers from Germany and canceled the stationing of cruise missiles. Sometimes the US causes unnecessary confusion and irritation. At first it was said that a replacement of 4,000 soldiers temporarily stationed in Poland would not take place. A few days later, Trump seemed to reverse that by tweet. Despite the chaos, the common thread is clear: less attention for Europe.
According to Der Spiegel In an emergency, Europe can no longer count on some naval ships and strategic bombers that are still stationed in the US. The Americans, says Daalder, are reducing their contribution to the NATO Force Model, the framework within which national armed forces make soldiers available to the NATO commander-in-chief.
Following Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, the number of soldiers who must be quickly ready has tripled according to that model. The model also determines how many soldiers should be available in a war in the medium and longer term. The US has now unilaterally reduced its contribution.
The way in which the US is reducing its contribution worries Daalder. “It is not done in an allied manner, but antagonistically tit for tat. That’s why I fear for the alliance. Because if you do it like this, it will fall apart, or at least the chance that it will fall apart will be greater.”
Europe, says Daalder, has made a huge mistake in recent months by waiting. “Europe constantly asked the US: we want to know what you contribute. Well. They know that now. And that may not be the right answer. They should have said: we Europeans are going to do this and this, so that you, the US, have to do less.”
Why did they do it that way?
“They were afraid that a European initiative would give the US an excuse to turn away. Waiting for the US is always wrong in these circumstances. You have to show America that you are serious. The German Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, therefore proposed a roadmap. Allies, including the Netherlands and the Secretary General, said ‘no’ to that. They said: if we lay down a roadmap, we give the Americans an excuse to leave. No: if you don’t have a roadmap, then America will go. away.”
So that is also a mistake by Secretary General Rutte?
“It is a mistake by NATO sec-gen didn’t solve that. The sec-gen still says today: the most important thing is to convince America to stay in Europe. NATO must show how Europe is taking more responsibility for Europe’s defense. That is the most important thing.”
Yet Europe is not standing still. Much more money goes to defense. New forms of conscription are emerging. Weapons are bought. Europe is on the move.
“The demands that NATO places on Europe have indeed increased. But within NATO the rule has always been: Europe does this, what remains is the US. Now the US has turned that around: we do this, you do the rest. Europe did not dare to have that debate and now the Americans are forcing it anyway. And they are doing so at a pace that has not been agreed with Europe.”
The US is therefore, as it were, creating holes in Europe’s defense, says Daalder, which Europe is not filling quickly enough. “You weaken the alliance politically because you are fighting among yourself. You also weaken it militarily because you do not properly coordinate how to shift burdens, burden shiftorganizes.”
Apart from the current friction, can you even take the US out of NATO without the whole structure collapsing?
“Very difficult. The Americans, with European consent, have created a body in which all the bones and the DNA are American. If you take out the skeleton, little is left. So you have to rebuild the skeleton with more European input. But then you have to know what that input is and talk about it.”
When you take out the skeleton, little is left. So you have to rebuild the skeleton with more European input
The link between Europe and the US is Mark Rutte. His approach was to praise Trump. Is that approach coming to an end?
,,I hope so. The approach was understandable when he started. He concentrated on the summit in The Hague last year, which was a success. It was also important to prevent the Americans from pursuing an anti-Ukraine policy. Also went reasonably well. But by the end of the year it was actually clear that it didn’t matter. I don’t know what exactly happened in Davos [toen Rutte in een gesprek met Trump tijdelijk de angel uit het debat over Groenland haalde]. But somewhere after Davos it was time to move in a different direction.”
Instead, Rutte praised the American attack on Iran while European allies were critical of it.
“Yes, you cannot say: I am going to take the position of one ally and ignore the others. He has done that. And that has not gone down well. He is losing friends. In Europe and in America. I would approach it differently.”
How?
“Concentrate on what everyone agrees on: there must be a European pillar of NATO. Say: here is what Europe is going to do. Here is the path, this is the timeline. That is what you as Secretary General of NATO must do. And stop talking about Iran. That was not good.”
Government leaders will meet in Ankara in July. Worried about that meeting?
“Trump will not leave, but everyone agrees that you now have to get through that summit as quickly as possible. And then no more summits will be organized in the next two to three years. Now summits only last half a day. That is complete nonsense. No decisions are being made because everyone is busy with the question: how do we ensure that we are nice to the Americans?”
There is also no longer talk of Ukraine’s NATO accession because the Americans have blocked it.
“It has been blocked by the Americans, but many Europeans like that very much. It is important to have that debate again. At the moment, Europe needs Ukraine more in the field of defense than Ukraine needs Europe. Look at conversations between Ukraine and Germany about cooperation in the defense industry.”
Europe is talking about joining the EU.
“Joining the European Union is not an alternative. The EU is about other things. One associate membership of the EU [zoals voorgesteld door Duitsland] is bullshit. It’s about NATO. No country from Central and Eastern Europe has joined the EU without first being a member of NATO.
“And don’t say: America is against. America? Who knows. Tomorrow Trump can wake up and say: OK, yes, Ukraine in NATO!”
