After setting a record high of over $5,400, gold is currently a good 17 percent lower. The investment houses’ forecasts for the first quarter of 2027 vary widely.
Gold has staged an extraordinary rally so far in 2026, temporarily reaching the $5,400 per troy ounce mark, historic record highs, driven primarily by increased demand from central banks as well as ongoing inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainties. Now, in the correction phase, the crucial question arises for investors: How far do the experts’ target points extend, and what is behind them?
Wide range: between $4,166 and $6,300
The range of forecasts for the period up to the end of 2026 and beginning of 2027 is unusually wide. After the significant setback in March 2026, Goldman Sachs confirmed its price target of $5,400 per troy ounce by the end of 2026. In February 2026, JPMorgan had issued a target range of $6,000 to $6,300 for the end of 2026, around 50 percent higher than its own forecast from December 2025, as Gold Republic explains. At the other end of the scale, according to MiningScout S&P Global: Analysts see the price of gold at $2,100 by 2027, having already lowered their target for 2026 to $2,500.
Three structural drivers dominate the bullish scenarios
Behind the high goals of the investment banks are not short-term speculations, but demand-side arguments. JPMorgan explicitly speaks of a structural rebasing phase of the gold price: Central banks with a gold share of less than ten percent of their reserves could create permanent excess demand simply by adjusting to ten percent. According to the bank, a shift of just 0.5 percent of US assets into gold would be enough to justify a gold price of $6,000. There are also macroeconomic tailwind factors: LBBW expects the US Federal Reserve to cut key interest rates by a further 50 basis points by mid-2027 and also expects a weaker US dollar.
Which speaks against the optimistic reading
The current pullback to below $4,600 corresponds to a technical correction of around 15 percent from the all-time high. Gold is currently trading below the 50-day and 100-day lines, signaling a short-term bearish trend. If the price does not stay above the zone around $4,500, the 200-day average will become the next benchmark. At the same time, the S&P Global forecast reminds us that a normalization of interest rate expectations and a strengthening US dollar can significantly slow down the upward trend.
Next indicator: Fed decision in July
The next reliable data point is the Fed meeting in July 2026. Whether the central bank confirms or pauses the interest rate reduction path will likely put the banks’ forecasts to the test immediately and will have a significant influence on the direction of the gold price until the first quarter of 2027.
Evelyn Schmal, editorial team at finanzen.net
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