The Minister of Economy, Luis “Toto” Caputochose the 12th Latam Economic Forum —held this Thursday at the Goldencenter in Parque Norte, before businessmen, investors and economists— to launch their most ambitious projections for the election year. Its central thesis: 2027 will be “the year of greatest growth” of the libertarian cycle and, for the first time in recent Argentine history, the economy will condition politics and not the other way around.
The speech began with a criticism of the opposition “story.” “Today there is a divergence probably never seen before between the data and what they try to make people believe”Caputo said, and went on to reel off indicators: inflation of 2.6% in April —with an even lower projection for May—, basic food basket with its lowest variation since August of last year (1.1%), and a record of goods exports in April that touched the 9 billion dollars. For the year, it projected total exports of 100 billion dollars. “It almost seems like a joke to read the newspapers that talk about crises when the monthly activity estimator is in its all-time high“, he ironized.
Caputo also revealed a fact about the exchange market that generated attention in the room: if the Central Bank I wouldn’t buy more than 100 million dollars a daythe exchange rate would already be at $1,100. He projected that, if this pace is maintained, the entity could accumulate 23 billion dollars in the year. “The Central Bank no longer defends the peso, has to defend the dollar“, he synthesized.
Looking ahead to 2027, the minister was explicit: “The economy is going to be brought into politics for the first time” and ruled out the classic election year scenario that the market anticipates. “I think it’s going to be the opposite of what people say,” he said. On the longer horizon, he outlined a scenario that included the elimination of withholdingshe tax on debits and creditsand the reduction of gross income provincial and municipal taxesif economic growth is consolidated. “If the economy grows six, seven, eight percent in the coming years, The most distortive taxes in the history of the world go away in two years“he promised.
