One analysis sees Bitcoin currently undervalued compared to gold. For investors, this brings into focus the question of what this could mean for the weighting in the portfolio.
• According to the model, Bitcoin is valued around 26 percent cheaper than gold
• Different reactions to interest rates, inflation and market risks are crucial
• Three scenarios show: Development depends heavily on the macroeconomic environment
In the world of tangible assets, two giants often face each other: the millennia-old gold and its digital challenger Bitcoin. Both are valued by investors when it comes to protecting assets from inflation, interest rate fluctuations or the devaluation of the US dollar. But despite these similarities, in practice they appear very different. While gold is considered the rock in the surf – stable and defensive – Bitcoin is prone to fluctuations, but with historically higher growth dynamics.
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A current analysis by WisdomTree now brings an interesting perspective to the debate: According to this, Bitcoin is currently trading at a significant discount in direct comparison to the precious metal.
The evaluation matrix: Is Bitcoin “cheap”?
According to Dovile Silenskyte, director of digital assets research at WisdomTree, internal modeling suggests that Bitcoin is currently undervalued by around 26 percent compared to gold. This assessment is based on a model that analyzes fundamental capital flows and macroeconomic metrics such as interest rates, currency trends and real investor demand.
The result of this study: Given the current economic conditions, Bitcoin should actually be trading at a higher level than gold. The model suggests that the fair value of Bitcoin should be significantly higher than its current level at the end of March 2026. However, this is expressly not a guarantee of short-term price gains, but rather an indication of a valuation gap that could close over time.
Interest rates and risk: who is ahead and when
But why does this gap between the two values arise in the first place? According to Silenskyte, the answer lies in the market environment. Gold and Bitcoin react to the same stimuli, but at different speeds and intensities.
If monetary policy loosens and interest rates fall, Bitcoin’s hour has come. In such an environment, investors’ willingness to take risks increases, which usually gives the cryptocurrency a stronger tailwind than gold.
If the fear goes away, investors will flee to the “safe haven” of gold. The precious metal shows off its defensive strength, while Bitcoin often comes under pressure in such phases.
If prices rise, this basically supports both asset classes. However, gold usually reacts more immediately, while Bitcoin sometimes needs time to catch up.
Three ways through the next year
WisdomTree outlines three plausible scenarios for the next twelve months that can serve as guidance for investors. If there are no major economic shocks, it can be expected that the gap between gold and Bitcoin will gradually close. If the inflation rate rises surprisingly sharply, gold is likely to take the lead initially. Investors would first look for security before investing more in Bitcoin again in the second step. In a weak overall market, gold is likely to remain the favorite. In this case, Bitcoin’s recovery would be delayed.
Strategic classification instead of short trades
According to Silenskyte, it is important for investors to understand that this comparison is not a tool for short-term day trading. It’s more about long-term positioning in the portfolio. The existing difference of 26 percent could be reduced in different ways – sometimes quickly and unevenly, sometimes slowly and steadily.
Bitcoin should not be seen as a replacement for gold. Rather, both would fulfill different tasks. But if the valuation gap is as wide apart as it is currently, this would provide a solid basis for thinking about the weighting of both values. Anyone who sees Bitcoin as undervalued compared to gold could use this as an opportunity to rethink their commitment or to anchor both values as complementary building blocks in their strategy.
Julia Walter, editorial team at finanzen.net
This text is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation. finanzen.net GmbH excludes any claims for recourse.
Image sources: Lightboxx / Shutterstock.com, Lisa S. / Shutterstock
