The advanced algorithm, which has simulated the season thousands of times, predicts how it will go in the Superpesis regular season, which starts on Sunday.
Is KPL celebrating the victory of the regular season? Mika Kylmäniemi / AOP
Website An athlete according to the forecast, four different stories emerge from the men’s Superbreeding season.
- The top four clubs decide home advantage for the last rounds of the playoffs.
- In the intermediate layer, there are two clubs trying to break into the top.
- In the lower middle caste, two clubs try to bully the middle class gangs.
- In addition, the bottom four teams are primarily playing for whether there will be playoffs or qualifiers in the fall.
The simulation does not yet predict the champion, as the playoffs start from scratch for eight teams, but the picture of the regular season is exceptionally clear according to the forecast.
Will KPL win?
Krje’s story is simple, but not boring.
The expected score of the KPL rises to 80 points and wins are accumulated in the model 27, which makes the Kouvola team the number one favorite to win the regular season. The probability of first place in the regular season is 36.5 percent.
Sotkamo comes on the heels of the Kouvolaans, 76 points and 25 wins, but the probability of winning the regular season drops to less than 25 percent.
When you add Vimpel’s 71 points, Mansen’s 70 points and the approximately 14 percent probability of both of them to the first place after 33 games, the four together take more than 90 percent of all simulated regular season wins.
So, the point of the regular season is practically an internal dispute between the four clubs – the order lives on, but the spirit of the game is clear.
Intermediate layer
Behind the top four, Joensuu and Kempele form their own intermediate layer according to the simulation.
JoMa is predicted to be fifth with 58 points and 19 wins. The possibility of breaking into the top four rises to almost 38 percent, and the playoff spot is released with a probability of more than 82 percent. In the regular season, Joensuu is a team that starts the season as a clear playoff organization, but not yet as an automatic holder of home advantage.
Kempele’s 52 points and 17 wins tell the same story with a slightly narrower margin. According to the simulations, KeKi is exactly what it looks like on paper: a team with a small chance of home advantage, but whose elimination from the playoffs would be a major surprise.
Risk of injury
We find the weaker side of the middle caste in Kitee and Hyvinkää.
In the forecast, KiPa collects 46 points and 15 wins, Tahko 41 points and 14 wins. The numbers reveal that the probability of a place in the playoffs is clearly more than 50 percent for both, but nowhere near the level of JoMa and KeK.
This makes these teams the playoff contenders all summer long. In the big picture, they are fighting for places 6–9, but as they warm up as hot teams in the summer heat, they force both Joensuu and Kempele to look behind them.
A single injury swings these teams much more than a top four or bottom team.
Cold numbers
At the lower end of the series, the simulation offers cold numbers.
Pattijoki’s predicted 29 points and 10 wins are a step higher than the actual bottom score, but not clearly out of it. According to the simulations, the chance of the playoffs in Raahe is 42.9 percent. It’s a traditional border team. In a good summer, surprisingly dangerous eighth, at the end of the season when weaker, ninth-tenth barely securing a place in the series.
Koskenkorva settles as a riser below Pattijoki. IPV and Alajärvi get a slightly weaker result in the simulation. All three of these teams have a good thirty percent chance of making the playoffs. At the same time, however, it is most likely to find a team (or teams) among them, which will go to get momentum from Ykköspesis next season.
4 stories
Four different stories emerge from the numbers of the forecast, which are worth following the regular season.
Kärki is a mill of four clubs, where each weaker week costs places and possible home advantage in the semi-finals or finals.
Joensuu and Kempele live in an intermediate state. They have to be good to keep up with the suction at the top, and at the same time be careful of slipping into the reach of KiPa, who is rapidly developing, and Tahko, who is looking for his own profile.
The speed of Kitee and Hyvinkää, who are in the second lane of Keskikasti, will determine whether the teams will be divided into 4+2+2 or 4+4+0 groupings in the fall.
When the playoffs begin, these numbers will be erased from the scoreboard, but in terms of the regular season layout, the simulation numbers speak for themselves. If one of the four KPL, SoJy, ViVe or Manse is left out of the eight, it will not be a surprise but a complete collapse. If, on the other hand, one of the bottom four PattU, KoU, IPV or AA catches the home advantage in the playoffs, we are already talking about a full-blooded phenomenon – one that will change the story of the entire summer.
