In case anyone missed it, Donald Trump isn’t particularly popular.
The president’s poll numbers have been declining for a year – and since he decided to go to war against Iran in February, they have plummeted. A new round of surveys appears almost every week, which underlines how clearly Americans reject Trump’s administration.
The AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research released a poll this week that puts Trump’s approval rating at just 33 percent. Reuters/Ipsos came to 36 percent. Earlier this month, a CNN poll found that just 31 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s job – the lowest level of his political career. Even before the war, his numbers weren’t good: the Pew Research Center measured 37 percent approval in January. Gallup no longer collects presidential approval ratings, but had put Trump’s rating at 36 percent in December – a drop from 47 percent at the start of his term. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows such a steep rise in disapproval and such a drastic decline in approval since last April that people are already making memes out of it.
Alarm in the 30 percent range
Tatishe Nteta, provost of political science at UMass-Amherst, who released a poll late last month showing Trump at 33 percent, says it’s normal for a president’s approval rating to drop over the course of his term – but when it gets into the 30s, “alarm bells start ringing.” This signals that the president is losing some support from his own ranks, because the country is roughly divided 40-40 along party lines, with 10 to 20 percent true independents. Trump’s approval rating doesn’t pause for a moment in the 30 percent range – it’s settled there, and there’s little sign of sentiment changing anytime soon.
“This is essentially catastrophic news for President Trump,” says Nteta. “People talk about it [George-W.-]Bush’s mark of falling below 30 percent – and that was in the wake of an unpopular, long-running war, a financial crisis surpassed only by the Great Depression, and a widespread belief that the United States was heading in the wrong direction. “So when a president flirts with a third of support, that should be seen as a warning signal: that his domestic and foreign policy is not going well, that he is not getting to grips with the core problems facing Americans, and that there is a communication problem between the government and the people.”
The war against Iran is widely unpopular – but the real core problem that Americans are struggling with under Trump is that everything is damn expensive. Inflation is rising, the price of gasoline is rising, and Trump is responsible for it. This week’s AP-NORC poll puts Trump’s approval rating on economic issues at 30 percent, down from 38 percent a month ago. When it comes to the cost of living, it’s even worse: just 23 percent. The current UMass-Amherst poll puts Trump’s approval rating when it comes to inflation at 24 percent – almost 10 points lower than a year ago.
Tariffs as a turning point
Horrific inflation under Biden was largely responsible for Trump’s return to the White House, and his approval ratings were still high in the first few months after taking office. The downward trend began in earnest when he pushed through his tariff program last spring, which burdened consumers while the government essentially told everyone to stop whining. The war hasn’t improved the situation, and the confusing messages from the White House about when things will get better for Americans aren’t helping either.
“It’s not rocket science,” says Nteta. “If people felt that they were doing well economically, that would be reflected in the president’s approval ratings. What these numbers tell us is that the economic misery in the country is widespread and that many people see the president as having the power to change it – and he has not done the job that a number of people elected him to do.”
Trump drove up the cost of living so much last year that a Fox News poll found: For the first time in over 15 years, Americans trust Democrats more than Republicans on economic issues – by a margin of 52 percent to 48 percent. That really says it all, considering Biden has only been out of office for just over a year.
Doubts about mental health
The same Fox News poll found that a majority of Americans do not believe Trump is mentally stable enough to serve effectively as president — which may not be a particularly good sign for the country given that he is about to turn 80 and has nearly three years left in office.
It is unclear to what extent Trump himself understands that he is in trouble with the people.
He has at times railed against “rigged and fraudulent” polls, at times expressed puzzlement as to how he could be so unpopular despite having the greatest first year in office of any US president, and at times insisted that he is more popular than ever. Earlier this month, he responded to a question about his plummeting poll numbers by citing an NBC News poll that showed 100 percent approval among MAGA supporters. “A very important survey,” the president said. Trump also shared a poll on his Truth Social page that showed tremendous support for his military and tariff agenda – but failed to mention that the poll was conducted at the Conservative Political Action Conference.
But Trump’s support on the right is not what he imagines. Several prominent conservative commentators have very publicly turned away from him, and part of conservative America is following suit. The AP-NORC poll found that only 68 percent of Republicans approve of his administration – and the mood is even worse when it comes to the cost of living: there he barely has a majority within his own ranks (51 percent).
Democrats on the offensive
Americans will likely be able to express their displeasure at the ballot box in November. Democrats have been sweeping in unscheduled elections since Trump returned to the White House, and all signs point to the party regaining control of the House of Representatives. The Cook Political Report found this week that Democrats are ahead by six points in the competitive districts that will decide the House of Representatives. Nteta says UMass-Amherst polls show a clear difference in willingness to vote in the midterms between Democrats and Republicans. “Enthusiasm is what ultimately gets individuals or parties over the finish line,” he says, “and what we’re seeing right now is probably Democrats coming together and recognizing the opportunity to potentially counteract the president if they can take the House and possibly even the Senate.”
The Senate may seem like a pipe dream for Democrats – but given Trump’s historic unpopularity and the possibility that his approval ratings could sink even further as he continues to focus on vain self-aggrandizement projects rather than the well-being of the American people, anything is possible.
