lThe evidence is overwhelming and does not seem like temporary data. The latest data recorded by the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) prepared by the INDEC shows that, in February, the activity that had rebounded in the previous months, fell again. Private estimates say that in March there was a recovery, but the truth is that taking the two-month period or projecting the first quarter, we could affirm that activity is on a kind of “plateau.” But the novelty is that, within this apparent stillness, heterogeneity rules, in a forced coexistence of sectors and regions with excellent, average or poor performance to produce a more than discreet average. Is that sustainable? Is it an inevitable step towards a cycle of growth, as the Government reiterates, or is it the prelude to a new disappointment?
Past and future. The economist and historian Pablo Gerchunoffprofessor emeritus at Di Tella University, recently published the book “The delay and the haste. History of Argentine social (im)balances”where he addresses precisely this question. Although he recognizes himself as an “optimist,” he does not fail to see the dangers of once again falling into a downward phase of the cycles of “illusion and disenchantment,” paraphrasing another of his famous texts. On a negative note, he points out that Milei does not have fiscal balance (the pillar of its entire economic policy) but rather repressed spending. But he takes his diagnosis one step further and explains: “Argentina is as if it had half its body paralyzed: one part works very well but the problem is that it cannot incorporate the other”. In his vision, a “wise” economic policy is one that also incorporates those who are lagging behind, but are also part of the Nation. “The part of the body that moves very slowly depends on a crucial price, which is the exchange rate. “This is reflected in employment, in the quality of employment and even, at some point, in the level of poverty.”he concludes.
Another guru widely heard in libertarian cuisine is Ricardo Arriazu. He shares with Gerchunoff his doubts about the fate of the economic program with nuances: he assigns it a 50% probability of success (more than the third he gave it a year ago) but that the balance that the policy should solve is the impact on employment in large urban centers, as a result of the abrupt change in relative prices and the collapse of certain patterns of industrial manufacturing production.
Looks. For Alfredo Romanoholder of Romano Groupit is quite a challenge to maintain a sustained fiscal surplus, “while in the middle an economic transition is being carried out, where there are many sectors that are dynamic, but there are many others that are not and it is costing them“He finds as an explanation for this difficulty that many important taxes have not yet been lowered.
In the case of IDESAthey point out that the own Javier Milei recently recognized that the improvement processes do not advance at the same speed. “The abrupt reduction in inflation is a great achievement, the recovery of production and the reduction in poverty is also very positive, but the weakest point is in the labor market.“, highlights its president Jorge Colina. And it marks that during 2025 there was a slight increase in the unemployment rate, but the type of employment that grew the most was informal self-employment, given that in terms of salaried jobs registered in the private sector there was a drop of 200 thousand workers between November 2023, before the current Government took office, and December 2025.
In the case of the demand, as analyzed by the consultancy Invecq, private consumption grew 7.9% in 2025 – somewhat above expectations -, although with a very unequal composition, given that the boost came mainly from imported consumer goods (+ 54% annually in quantities) and durable goods (+34% year-on-year for household appliances or +48% for car registration). On the other hand, mass consumption only had a partial recovery (+2.4% in 2025, but after having fallen 16.4% in 2024).
The economist Jorge Dayresponsible for the Section Mediterranean Foundation Regionalin the current Argentine economic context, the provinces with the best relative performance—particularly in exports—are those linked to three major engines: Vaca Muerta (Neuquén), mining (San Juan, Salta and Jujuy) and the agro-Pampean complex. In contrast, he states that other traditional oil provinces (such as Santa Cruz and Chubut) and those with greater dependence on national funds, especially in the North of the country, have a weaker performance.
“In this framework, it would be expected that regions with dynamic sectors have generated a “spillover effect” on their local economies, reflected in a better evolution of employment not only in leading activities, but also in the rest of the sectors,” he suggests.
However, in the analysis of registered private employment, it is observed that, although there are cases where this effect is verified – such as Neuquén, with notable global growth -, at the aggregate level a fall in employment predominates (-2.7% between the third quarter of 2025 and the same period of 2023), with marked heterogeneity between provinces and sectors. “Labor performance does not respond to a generalized expansion, but to specific sectoral dynamics, generally linked to export activities or with clear comparative advantages. This suggests that the ‘spillover’ for now is limited, conditioned by the productive structure of each province,” he summarizes.
For the last two years (comparing the third quarter of 2025 with the same period in 2023), there is an average drop of 2.7% in private employment registered at the country level, confirming that the labor market is going through an adjustment phase. However, this figure hides marked differences between provinces, with a smaller group that does manage to expand employment and others (the majority) that present contractions of different magnitudes. For example, construction was the sector with the greatest variability, with behavior that responds strongly to the economic cycle and, in particular, to the availability of public works.
Go up and down. This analysis indicates that the “spillover effect” is not automatic, but is conditioned: for the “dynamic” sectors to be able to generate employment in the rest of the economy, an environment is required that can favor productive chains. But if these conditions are not present, growth will only be concentrated in specific activities, only partially impacting total employment.
In this game of winners and losers, Colina highlights that the destruction of jobs is not negative if it is motivated by the reconversion of companies to increase their competitiveness. On the other hand, it is a very negative social and economically process if it occurs as a consequence of delays in the modernization of the tax, regulatory and infrastructure system for production. “The lack of credit, bad taxes, excess bureaucracy and deficiency in infrastructure generate conditions that induce or directly force companies to adjust their workforce”he concludes. The battle for competitiveness is what looms, but the impact will be received by the sectors that are affected in their viability. That is, companies, owners, workers, supplier networks and even cities will put more than a simple improvement into this bet.
