Clear tunes in City’s cup semi-final.
Erling Haaland and Rayan Cherki get to attack Soton. PDO
In this week’s standard round, you should be especially careful and note that there may be a dramatic change in target 11’s motivational situation before the game. The home team Oxford is playing here for their place in the league. With two rounds left in the Championship, it can still climb out of the relegation zone and overtake Charlton, who are still there, with a better goal difference. At the moment, Oxford are six points behind Charlton with two goals worse on goal difference.
One point from the two remaining matches (Hull at home and Swansea away) is enough for Charlton to secure a place in the league – and take Oxford’s chances of the same. On Saturday, Charlton will play their own game against Hull starting at 2:30 p.m., and the result of that game will therefore be known before Oxford’s own match against Sheffield W starts.
If Charlton has grabbed the necessary point from Hull (or even a win), then Oxford will have an empty draw in their hands in the game starting at 17:00 anyway. This would surely have a negative effect on its motivation and mood and willingness to play. Sheffield W have been a disgrace to the Championship all season. The team has won only exactly one of its 44 matches (2-0 away from Portsmouth in September). I believe that Sheffield has – if Oxford’s situation has become hopeless in terms of survival – just the right motivation to take their second win of the season. If we start the game from that imaginary, but even quite probable setup, then Oxford should never be a 70% favorite worthy of its game percentage. It is definitely worth leaving the betting coupon until the last moments this week, when Oxford’s true motivational situation is already clear. If Oxford doesn’t have everything in the game, then it’s definitely worth tearing up the target.
The most certain winner of the round is object 5 Manchester City against Southampton. It is the semi-final of the FA Cup to be played at Wembley. The level difference between the teams is extremely large, even though Southampton is possibly making another promotion to the Premier League. Both teams have a backlog of matches, and City’s main goal is the Premier League championship, and accordingly, Southampton’s goal is promotion. Still, I believe both will bet on the Cup semi-final as well. In any case, City has much more reserves for recycling, for example, than Southampton. Manchester City is not overplayed in the regular season even with 80% of the game and that is very safe.
Even in the Premier League, there are two, well maybe just a few, teams that qualify for sure. Target 1 Arsenal haven’t been at their best lately, but neither have Newcastle. The motivation and home advantage make the Gunners a huge favorite here. Similarly, the visitors in the Liverpool – Crystal Palace match do not really have a stake in the game, and Liverpool still has a chance in a really bad end of the season to bounce out of the places that qualify for next season’s Champions League. I believe Liverpool will come here with the right attitude. Both Arsenal and Liverpool are slightly overplayed cases (and their game share will probably increase towards the deadline), but they still qualify to be sure.
Among the individual brands worth picking are item 4 Tottenham, item 9 cross and item 13 Exeter.
Standard/basic line/system 384 lines (96 euros)
1.Arsenal – Newcastle U 1 1
2.Liverpool – Crystal P 1 1
3.West Ham – Everton x2 x2
4. Wolverhampton – Tottenham 2 2
5.Manchester C – Southampton 1 1
6.QPR – Derby 2×2
7.Norwich C – Swansea 1 1
8.Birmingham – Bristol C 1 1x
9.Sheffield U – Preston 1 1x
10.Stoke – Portsmouth 2 12
11.Oxford U – Sheffield W 1 1×2
12.Bradford C – Bolton 2 x2
13.Burton Albion – Exeter 1 12
Destinations: 1-4 Premier League, 5 FA Cup, 6-11 Championship and 12-13 League One