The economic effect of exclusion from the World Cup is heavy for federal coffers, including malus on sponsorship contracts, merchandising and FIFA prizes
A failure, from every point of view. With a knock-on effect on the federal budget. The match in Bosnia was worth, via Allegri, around 30 million: revenues that would have come from the ticket for the World Cup scheduled, between June and July, in the United States, Canada and Mexico. The elimination of the Azzurri sends them all up in smoke.
budget
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When the federal council, two months ago, approved the FIGC’s 2026 budget, with an estimated loss of 6.6 million, president Gabriele Gravina immediately clarified: “The result will depend on our qualification for the World Cup which would have a very positive impact on the budget”. For reasons of prudence, the budget was drawn up without taking into account any benefits linked to the Italian presence in the world championship, given that qualification depended on the playoffs. In terms of net result, that estimate will certainly be corrected, because the Federation, based on strict accounting discipline, spends what it collects: a lower turnover will lead to lower costs, in order to rebalance management. Looking at the results of the last decade, even on the two occasions in which they failed to qualify for the World Cup, they managed to record profits, despite having to face a reduction in revenues (81 million in 2018, compared to 88 in 2017; 96 in 2022, compared to 126 in 2021). The fact remains that the third consecutive absence from the World Cup deprives the FIGC of rich revenues, which would have been reinvested in the entire movement.
malus
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It is precisely the budget that helps us count the damage. The administrators explain that the contractual clauses present in the agreements with the sponsors provide for a malus, i.e. a downward remodulation, which is triggered automatically in the event of failure to qualify: in total, we are talking about 9.5 million less. It must be said that the commercial segment is experiencing a strong growth trend. Evaluating the four-year period, i.e. the typical time span of these contracts, income from sponsors and advertising (clearly linked to the national team) grew from an average of 42 million per year in the 2015-18 cycle to 49 million in 2019-22, until the leap in the four-year period that began in 2023 and will end at the end of this year: over 70 million on average, with the peak of 81 reached in 2024. The federal managers have made the most of the internalization of partnership management and editorial content production activities: the technical sponsor Adidas, which took over from Puma with an agreement until 2030, increased not only the basic compensation (from 22 to 30-35 million per year) but also the guaranteed minimum royalties for the products sold, which in 2024 generated a total of 11 million (4 more than in 2023). It is a real shame not to be able to exploit this organic development process in the most important sporting showcase, also because the American market is particularly strategic for Adidas, which has already capitalized on the launch of the new blue shirt last November and expected to make a splash at the World Cup.
sales and prizes
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Between the lack of increase in merchandising and failed negotiations for new sponsorship contracts, around ten million vanish, in addition to the 9.5 million in malus mentioned previously. And it didn’t end here. FIFA, in fact, awards a prize to the participating nations, proportional to the results. The attendance fee is 9 million dollars, plus 1.5 to cover preparation costs: a guaranteed minimum of 10.5 million dollars, equivalent to 9 million euros. The fee progressively increases as the tournament progresses: 11 million euros for those who pass the group stage, 14 for those who reach the round of 16, 18 for the quarterfinals, up to 45 million for the winners. All things considered, this amounts to around 30 million in lost revenues for the FIGC, including contractual penalties, other variable components of the commercial segment and FIFA entry bonuses. However, qualification is not relevant for the purposes of TV rights, since the FIGC receives a share relating to the valorisation of Italy’s matches, based on the centralized negotiation agreement defined by all the European federations with UEFA. The national team has now become the goose that lays golden eggs for the Federation. The FIGC’s turnover recorded a record in 2021, with 230 million, of which 126 attributable to the activity of the European champion national team. But that exercise also benefited from the organization in Italy of four European Championship matches and the final phase of the Nations League. The Italian revenues will be even higher in 2024: 134 million on a federal turnover of 224 million. We are talking about 60% of the overall cake. This is why exclusion from the World Cup is harmful to the entire system.
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