Oscar 2026: predictions, who will win best film and best actors

PFirst of all, where will the 2026 Oscars be broadcast? For the second year in a row they will be able to be seen on Rai 1 starting at 11.30pm on Sunday 15 March (with live coverage of the red carpet and then of the actual show, starting at 1pm; commented in the studio again by Alberto Matano and his guests). In Los Angeles the host will instead be Conan O’Brien.

Like the 2003 one, this edition takes place shortly after the United States entered the war. Then he was against Iraq in response to the attacks of September 11, 2001. With the whole theater fighting for the homeland, the only one to protest – getting boos – was Michael Moore, winner of an Oscar for Bowling at Columbinebest documentary. This time, against Iran and with a president who would bomb Hollywoodperhaps someone will venture a comment. It must be said, however, that the 2026 Oscars are a fairly unpredictable year of awards that all seem to be pushing for the spectacle alone. A year in which no prediction seems certain, at least in the main categories (except for Jessie Buckley as best actress for Hamlet).

And why on earth? First, because all the candidates are very solid stocks with a host of proud supporters. Then because for the first time the Academy has forced every member to watch all the nominated films through a detection system, under penalty of exclusion from the final round of voting. A change that could lead to surprises where the result is already taken for granted.

Oscar 2026: predictions on the winners, films and actors

Best film

Bugonia
F1 – The movie
Frankenstein
Hamnet – In the name of the son
Marty Supreme
*One battle after another
The secret agent
Sentimental Value
The sinners
Train Dreams

Beloved film, One battle after another it is a perfect union between authorial language, action and box office and the spirit of the times. It is difficult to find a similar agreement between cassette and message. The sinnerswith its 16 nominations, a record in history, will certainly go home with several Oscars, but not the one for best film. The horror part of Ryan Coogler’s vampire story actually weighs like a boulder on the real gravitas Of Sinnerspushing the title into a disqualifying area for such an important award, that of films that are too genre-oriented (which, since no one dares to say openly, will perhaps have double weight in the secret vote).

At a metric level, then, One battle after another he won the most in this race towards the night of the stars. He won the Golden Globe, the Critics’ Choice, the Bafta and also the prizes awarded by the directors and producers associations; categories, the latter, almost completely overlapping with the Academy voters. True, at the former Sag Awards, now Actors Awards, The sinners it won Best ensemble, and in moments the theater collapsed. However, as the New York Times, similar surprises occur when the favorite for critics and operators (i.e. UBDL) is respected but not loved, but it doesn’t seem like the case One battle after another (which is also influenced by the eternal nominee Paul Thomas Anderson, the Scorsese empty-handed after Scorsese also won).

The third way would be The secret agentsuperb spy of Brazilian soul and blood without any chance of victory. But much, much too much, superior to both favourites.

Best director

*Paul Thomas Anderson – One battle after another
Ryan Coogler – The sinners
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
Chloe Zhao – Hamnet – In the name of the son

Here is the truth battle is between Anderson and Coogler for the same reasons as above. 2026 really seems like the year of Paul Thomas, and deservedly so (his first nomination as director dates back to 2008, for The oilman). With all the love for The sinnersgreat display of sumptuous chamber virtuosity, the Oscar for Thomas seems both inevitable and once again due: If only for the unparalleled chase scene on the bumpy highway. Having said that, the card should not be underestimated”Ryan Coogler is the first black director to win an Oscar.” but Anderson won the Directors Guild of America Award (a victory which – except 8 times in 77 years – means a certain Oscar). The risk for him is to take home 3 statuettes (the other two are best film and best adapted screenplay).

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio – One battle after another
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
*Michael B. Jordan – The sinners
Wagner Moura – The secret agent

Jordan’s victory over Chalamet does not stem from controversy born from the excerpt of an interview with Timothée on the irrelevance of ballet and opera (and their alleged 4 cats of audience): the voting for the 2026 Oscars was already closed. Rather, the impression is that of a feeling generally against the young actor. Marty Supreme he liked it, he hit the jackpot, but he appeared almost like a machine in the director’s machine. This, together with other unbalanced surrounding elements, such as the engagement with Kylie Jenner, would put her victory at a disadvantage. in favor of Jordan (in the Sinners he then plays twins). Who surprisingly won the Actors Award, beating Chalamet, who had already been humiliated at the Bafta by Robert Aramayo (a resentment on both coasts of the Atlantic).

What is certain is that if Chalamet won it would be a sad victory, without it skinning of hands that he would have had without the great attack on the minor visual arts. Too much reverberation that has lasted for a week on the affront: young and good agreed, young good and presumptuous, and no little idiot, no. At 30 years old playedfor him there wouldn’t even be the record of youngest actor ever to win: the record remains with Adrien Brody, Oscar at 29 years old The pianistto.

The third way – in a hypothetical mutiny of the favorites – would be Wagner Moura for The secret agent (already best actor at Cannes 2025), but all 5 candidates deserve to win.

Best Actress

*Jessie Buckley – Hamnet – In the name of the son
Rose Byrne – If only I could I would kick you
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue – A melody of love
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
Emma Stone – Bugonia

Buckley is the one who won all the awards of the season, all she needs is the Oscar. And there is no reason to believe that, at this point, it escapes her. The only one who could steal her statuette, in a real coup, is Rose Byrne, but If only I could I would kick you It was praised for the actress’s unique performance but few really liked it. Two-time winner Emma Stone is out of the running.

Best Supporting Actor Oscar 2026

Benicio del Toro – One battle after another
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo – The sinners
*Sean Penn – One battle after another
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

From mortgaged Oscar to Stellan (74 years old), within three months we moved on to Oscar mortgaged for Sean Penn. His interpretation is perfect for the category, which has always favored the strange and the particular over clean roles. In fact, among the five nominees, he is the one who remains impressed thanks to his two-dimensional character Lockjaw, ignoble and racist military caricature, which is reserved for a black tragicomedy outcome. Sean already has two Oscars, but unlike his colleagues he has won nominations for every award of the season, winning (without showing up; which he will certainly do on Sunday night too, we’ll see) at the Bafta and the Actors Awards.

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
*Amy Madigan – Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku – The sinners
Teyana Taylor – One battle after another

This should be the case Amy Madigan, the only one to have won two major awards (the Critics Choice and the Actors Awards). Veteran, wife of Ed Harris (they met on the set of The seasons of the heartin 1984), was first nominated in 1986 for the film Twice in a lifetime (always as supporting character). 40 years later he risks victory with the role irresistible, and terrifying, of Aunt Gladys in the horror film Weapons. Like Penn, this is a perfect role for the category, sort of a relative of Mia Farrow’s meddling, satanic neighbor in Rosemary’s baby (also Oscar to Ruth Gordon, who was 72 at the time; Madigan is 75, so I would say that Amy’s time has come).

The two colleagues who could undermine her are Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku. Teyana, in a powerful supporting role but with limited playing time, seems to have dropped out of the game in favor of Sean Penn/Lockjaw, who is in love with her. Likewise Wunmi, who dropped in the predictions in favor of Jordan and, a little, of her colleague Delroy Lindo.

The other Oscars 2026, the news of Best Casting

In the other major categories of the 2026 Oscars, games look like an even spread between One battle after another And The Sinners. The former is guaranteed the non-original screenplay, the latter the original one. The award in the Best Casting category – new for 2026 – should go to The Sinners, while the best song – certain victory for Golden Of KPop Demon Huntersyou can see it above Netflix – it seems like yet another defeat for Diane Warren (17 nominations and zero Oscars).

Make up, set design and costumes should all go to Frankenstein. Zero surprises also in the Best International Film category, mortgaged by Sentimental Value (all the main cast is nominated in the acting categories). Italians not received.