The US government published an official strategy document that includes a warning to Europe. The text describes a continent that, according to Washington, has lost the capacity for action, lives within mental categories that no longer correspond to the current world and is at risk of becoming irrelevant on the global board.
The warning is not formulated in abstract terms since the document describes a Europe with a normative vision of the international order, trusting in the rules and institutions to organize the behavior of the powers and with an expectation of stability similar to that which existed under North American military and technological protection throughout the postwar period.
According to Washington’s reading, that expectation is no longer founded because the strategic ecosystem has changed irreversibly. The United States describes a world where the relevant powers act with a different logic, based on force, deterrence, and the calculation of survival. At this point it is worth clarifying who are the two names that run through the entire analysis.
Thomas Hobbes was a 17th century English philosopher who described politics as the administration of fear and the struggle for security. His view maintains that actors only find stability when they have enough power to prevent others from harming them. A Hobbesian structure understands the world as a realm where survival depends on material capacity, leadership, resources and coercion.
On the other hand, Immanuel Kant was an 18th-century German philosopher who imagined an international order organized through laws, institutions, and rational cooperation. A Kantian framework interprets that conflicts can be reduced if all actors accept common rules, arbitration mechanisms, and legal restrictions applicable to all.
The contrast with Europe appears when the philosophical root of its current behavior is observed. The continent built the European Union, international courts, regulatory codes and legal culture on the basis of that Kantian tradition. The American document describes a gap between that vision and the real environment.
Russian military power acts from a logic of force. For their part, emerging powers operate from strategic interests that do not respond to universal principles. Meanwhile, technological developments, especially artificial intelligence, accelerate a type of competition where there are no longer neutral grounds or external containment mechanisms.
In this map, a Kantian structure does not generate protection or produce advantages. Washington’s diagnosis functions as a conceptual ultimatum. The United States does not stop to justify its position and exposes the asymmetry. Meanwhile, Europe looks at the world as if rules create reality; However, the rest of the international system creates rules when they serve its reality.
This difference explains why, according to the document, Europe is weakened. The text maintains that the continent does not convert its economic weight into strategic power, does not adapt its military apparatus to the pace of current threats and relies on legal mechanisms that no longer operate as a deterrent. This writing functions as a deliberate culture shock.
The United States leaves in writing that Europe must abandon the illusion that the international order remains Kantian, and at the same time proposes a reading where survival depends on adopting Hobbesian logic and rebuilding material capacity to operate in an environment without an arbitrator.
This leads to the final point of the analysis. If Europe maintains its complete Kantian tradition, the result becomes predictable. Hobbesian powers advance in a space that does not exercise power or deterrence. The American warning expresses a material reality. In a world defined by capabilities and not desires, the strict continuity of the Kantian paradigm leads to the loss of strategic control. The United States can sustain a Kantian internal order and Hobbesian external behavior because it possesses the power to sustain that duality.
Russia operates with a comprehensive Hobbesian logic because it does not recognize stable utility in the norm. And for its part, Europe tries Kantian actions inside and out without having the resources that make that structure viable. The conclusion of the document is stated without ambiguity. Europe will preserve its Kantian internal organization without internal conflicts.
The problem appears in foreign policy. An outwardly Kantian system has no capacity to survive in a Hobbesian ecosystem. For the United States, the alternative is linear, or Europe corrects course and adopts a Hobbesian foreign policy sufficient to prevent the advance of powers that already operate with that logic or it is exposed. The decision does not depend on intention or aspiration, but rather depends on recognizing the nature of the world in which one finds oneself.
Things as they are
Mookie Tenembaum addresses international issues like this every week with Horacio Cabak on his podcast El Observador Internacional, available on Spotify, Apple, YouTube and all platforms.
