Grayscale forecast: Bitcoin could reach new record highs in 2026

Grayscale forecast: Bitcoin could reach new record highs in 2026

Grayscale is surprisingly optimistic about the future of Bitcoin and is questioning a long-held market principle.

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Four-year cycle at a glance

The so-called four-year cycle describes a historical pattern according to which Bitcoin goes through a boom and then a correction phase approximately every four years. This pattern has often coincided with the halving. This is a programmed event in which the amount of newly created Bitcoins is halved. According to a report on Yahoo Finance, 2025 was widely considered a bullish phase for Bitcoin, while some market observers see 2026 as the possible start of a longer downturn.

Favorable environment for Bitcoin

However, Grayscale stated that the cycle appears to be in danger of breaking as there has been no parabolic price increase in Bitcoin in 2025. The company also points out that Bitcoin’s market structure has changed, with new capital now largely flowing through exchange traded products and digital asset treasuries. In addition, the company assesses the overall macroeconomic environment as favorable for Bitcoin.

Among other things, Grayscale expects significantly lower interest rates in the future, which is usually positive for risk assets and stores of value such as gold. The company refers to the reduction in the Fed’s key interest rate on December 10th and reports that Kevin Hassett is being considered as a possible successor to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Institutional inflows as a possible catalyst

Grayscale also explained that the expected legislation on cryptocurrency market structure could be another catalyst for Bitcoin as it will potentially attract more institutional inflows. The company noted that the bill’s passage depends on whether cryptocurrencies remain a bipartisan issue despite the upcoming midterm elections.

Bitcoin correction: pullbacks match historical patterns

Grayscale’s announcement comes at a time when Bitcoin has fallen significantly since its record price of around $126,200. However, Grayscale emphasizes that such setbacks are common for Bitcoin: Since 2010, the price has fallen by at least 10 percent around 50 times, with the average correction being around 30 percent.

Grayscale also stated that Bitcoin has probably reached its bottom. The company cited, among other things, the severe imbalance in put options and the fall in the valuation of digital asset treasuries below their net asset values.

Grayscale remains optimistic despite criticism

Bitcoin could reach new record highs in 2026 despite recent market turmoil, according to a recent report from Grayscale Research. The company strongly contradicts the growing pessimistic sentiment towards the cryptocurrency. The forecast comes against the backdrop of sharp criticism of Bitcoin, including from long-time critics Jacob King and Peter Schiff, who urgently warn that the asset’s time as an investment asset is coming to an end.

According to Grayscale’s forecast, the company is optimistic about the crypto market in the short term, but also points out that the most significant gains in the long term will come from holding.

Editorial team finanzen.net