Sinner-Alcaraz, ranking and average points per tournament: the calculations for overtaking

On November 14, at the Inalpi Arena, ATP president Andrea Gaudenzi presented Carlos Alcaraz with the world number 1 ranking award. Two days later the Spaniard took the field in the final of the “masters” tournament and lost 7-6 7-5 to Jannik Sinner. It is not simply the temporal proximity of these two events that replaces the image of the lone man in command with a more realistic duopoly. It’s the numbers that make the difference in tennis. It is true that the Spaniard undoubtedly closed 2025 in first place, with 12,050 ATP points, but he did so by being able to play four more tournaments: 16 against 12. And this because the Italian was forced to stay away from the playing fields for three months, due to the suspension agreed with Wada for the Clostebol case. Despite this, the distance between the two is minimal, given that Jannik has collected 11,500 points. If we then averaged the points per tournament played, then we would have a hypothetical overtaking: Sinner 958.3, Alcaraz 753.1. The South Tyrolean managed to extract an average of 200 points more than his rival from each competitive match. This data certifies the excellence of the performance provided by the Italian, in a season in which he suffered so much psychologically and had to review his plans.

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If we look at the bulletin board, the duelists divided the four Slams equally: Australian Open and Wimbledon at Sinner, Roland Garros and Us Open at Alcaraz. Jannik also won the ATP Finals, while Carlos won three Masters 1000 (Monte Carlo, Rome and Cincinnati) against one (Paris). In short, we are equal. However, in the big tournaments the number 2 ranking has been a little more consistent. Let’s take the Majors: two wins and two finals for Sinnerfor a total of 6600 points and an average of 1650; two victories, a final and a quarter for Alcaraz, for a total of 5700 points and an average of 1425. Speaking of the Turin Finals, in the Masters 1000 the haul of the Murcian, who played two more tournaments, was significantly higher (3420 against 2350 points), but with the blemish of two eliminations on his debut (Miami and Paris). Even in this category, the average points rewards the South Tyrolean: 587.5 against 570. Only in the 500 tournaments, with three titles and a final in five participations, Alcaraz was better from all points of view: higher number of points (1930 against 1050) and better average (386 against 350).

perspectives

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As we know, the Race ranking, the one that determines qualification for the Finals, resets to zero at the beginning of the year. The official ATP ranking, however, is based on the last 52 weeks, gradually discarding the tournaments that “expire”. This is where Sinner’s advantage comes into play heading into 2026. Having only played 12 tournaments in 2025 allows him to deduct fewer points. Looking at the breakdown that makes up his score, the zeros stand out in correspondence with four Masters 1000 stages: these are the “mandatory” tournaments. It does not mean that a player is obliged to play them, but that if he does not do so, he loses a slot, since the ATP spoils are calculated on a maximum of 19 tournaments (plus the Finals). Sinner, having played little this year, did not have to discard any other tournament. The key is that, after the Australian Open where he defends the title, he will be able to launch into the hunt for first place: from February to the beginning of May he will have no points to discard and will be in the full accumulation phase, unlike Alcaraz who will defend a treasure of 2340 points. Between Rome and the eve of Wimbledon the Spaniard will have to discard another 1500 points more than the Italian. Spring, therefore, could be the season of overtaking.