Central Asia and Chinese cars: the role of BYD, SAIC and Geely

In recent years, the Central Asian automotive market has become central for Chinese manufacturers, thanks to the strategic position of the autonomous region of Xinjiang as a bridge territory with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, connected to the People’s Republic of China through railway, road and logistical corridors developed within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (Bri). This infrastructure network reduces trade barriers and facilitates exports, production localization and assembly. The objective of the article is to delve into the structure and growth potential of the Central Asian automotive market, highlighting the opportunities, constraints and risks for Chinese manufacturers.

1 Key points

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The presence of BYD, Geely and Saic Motor in the Central Asian region can be summarized in three key elements.

1. In Central Asia, Chinese brands can strengthen their presence in the generalist segmentwhere European competition is limited, while BMW, Mercedes and Audi-Porsche hold sway 84% of the market premium-luxury, consolidating the leadership of Western manufacturers.
2. Xi Jinping’s presidency considers the automotive and energy sectors strategic to strengthen China’s presence in Central Asia, reduce the influence of Russian Federation and contain that of the Republic of India.
3. Byd, Saic and Geely’s expansion into Central Asia remains vulnerable to security risks, including terrorism and political instability, which could slow down China’s industrial strategies.

2 The automotive market in Central Asia

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In recent years, the Central Asian automotive market has recorded constant growth, also supported by foreign direct investments from Chinese car manufacturers, which have contributed to expanding production and stimulating internal demand. In 2023, sales of new vehicles in Kazakhstan reached approx 200,000 unitshighlighting an increase compared to previous years; while in November 2025 they were registered 207,616 carsbringing the total vehicle fleet to over 5.8 million. Uzbekistan confirms itself as an important hub for industry automotive regional, with approx 424,800 vehicles products in 2024 and a domestic market share heavily concentrated in the state company UzAuto Motors. In recent years, however, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan have not planned investments in the automotive sector, remaining dependent on imports of cars produced in Kazakhstan, China, Japan and South Korea.

The structure of the Central Asian automotive market is dependent on the price of the cars, with an average age between 10 and 15 years. Demand is concentrated on small cars, economical sedans and light commercial vehicles, conditions which have favored the expansion of Chinese brands, now close to almost 40% of total sales. In Kazakhstan, in the first nine months of 2025, Chinese brands covered approximately 34.5% of the automotive market, characterized by the predominance of petrol engines (82.1%), followed by diesel engines (7.6%), gas engines (7.1%), mixed fuel engines (2.7%) and electrical (0.2%).

3 Regulation

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The expansion of the automotive market in Central Asia has been supported by targeted public policies. In KazakhstanThe “Concept for the development of transport and logistics potential of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2030” (approved on December 30, 2022), promotes electric mobility and the construction of an efficient infrastructure network for vehicle charging, creating favorable conditions for the entry and growth of Chinese manufacturers in the region. The Uzbek strategy for electric transport is divided into two main projects:

• There Green Economy Strategy 2019–2030 promotes energy efficiency, with the aim of reducing pollution and developing a sustainable infrastructure and transport system, focusing on electric vehicles (cars and trains).
• The Concept of Environmental Protection until 2030 establishes sectoral objectives of decarbonisation and reduction of transport emissions, strengthening the diffusion of electric cars and means of transport, as happened in Tashkent and Samarkand.

In Tajikistan, an electric transport development program has been launched for the period 2023–2028, which defines specific objectives for the electrification of public transport and taxi fleets; while Turkmenistan has not yet defined a formal strategy for electric industry or transportation with 2030 horizon. Overall, the legislative framework of Central Asia on the regulation of the automotive sector reflects the development of the national automotive markets of individual states, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in a condition of technological and regulatory superiority compared to other countries.

4 Investments by Chinese companies

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Since 2013, Chinese investment in Central Asia’s automotive sector has marked a shift from exports to localized production, driven by growth in demand, favorable industrial policies and the need to diversify from European and US markets. In this context, BYD, Geely and Saic Motor have tried to define new industrial partnerships with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. In December 2022, the Chinese company and the Uzbek group UzAuto Motors established the Byd Uzbekistan Factoryactive from June 2024 and dedicated to the production of plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles. The plant was designed to meet an initial capacity of approx 50,000 vehicles per year, with the possibility of increasing production a 200,000–300,000 unitsplacing Uzbekistan as a major manufacturing and export hub. In Kazakhstan, BYD’s best-selling models are Han EV, Song Plus EV and Song Plus DM-i, while in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, it is present in the commercial sector, without any plant announced in end 2025.

In recent years, Geely Auto has followed an incremental strategy in Central Asia, favoring the expansion of the dealer network, and then started the construction of a new one in Almaty (Kazakhstan) in 2025. establishment with Orbis Kazakhstan, for an estimated investment of KZT 100 billion (US$200–220 million) and up to 1,500 jobs. There productionexpected between 2026 and 2027, will focus on high-volume models such as Coolray and Emgrand, in line with Kazakhstan’s policy of reducing imports and stabilizing supply. Instead, SAIC Motor has adopted a distribution-oriented strategy, leveraging the MG and Maxus brands and relying on dealer networks in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. This approach reflects the company’s global strategy: in 2023–2024 it oversold 1 million of vehicles in foreign markets, with a growing share of EV vehicles. The expansion of Chinese automakers in Central Asia represents a strategic asset for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in strengthening its economic and diplomatic influence. Byd, Saic Motor and Geely, focusing on targeted investments, aim to establish a hegemonic position in the Central Asian automotive market, marginalizing European manufacturers and limiting the entry of Indian producers.

5 The risks and constraints for BYD, Geely and SAIC in Central Asia

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Central Asia, while offering growing opportunities for Chinese automotive companies, presents constraints and risks that could limit the effectiveness of BYD, Geely and Saic Motor’s programs. Among these we can include:

1. The automotive market presents a growing competition on two fronts. On the one hand, Indian manufacturers, especially Tata Motors and Mahindra, are trying to penetrate the economical light and passenger vehicle segment; on the other hand, European brands maintain a dominant position in the premium and luxury segments, especially in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
2. The Russian Federation views the expansion of BYD, Geely and Saic Motor in Central Asia as a challenge to its influence in the region, linked to Soviet legacy. Moscow has shown signs of political resistance to Chinese dominance in the automotive sector, with possible trade measures, preferential financing for Russian brands and attempts to maintain influence in joint ventures or regional distribution.
3. Central Asia presents security risks related to terrorism and organized crime, especially in the border areas of the Xinjiangdel Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Such threats could compromise the security of BYD and Geely’s factories, logistics and personnel.

6 Items to supervise

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The performance of the automotive market in Central Asia can be assessed taking into account the following points.

• Byd, Geely and Saic Motor’s future investments and agreements with local governments, including incentives and industrial partnerships.
• Growth in sales volumes, correlated to the development of the Gross Domestic Product at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) of individual countries and public infrastructure investments, in particular in the electric vehicle sector.
• Industrial safety and protection policies, aimed at safeguarding production hubs and mitigating the risks of regional instability, including terrorism and local conflicts.

7 Conclusions

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Central Asia is configured as a strategic market for BYD, Geely and SAIC, characterized by high growth potential, integrated logistics infrastructures and public policies favorable to electric mobility. In the medium term, the region could evolve from a simple outlet market to a regional assembly platform functional to the Chinese industrial strategy, strengthening China’s presence along the Eurasian axis. However, geopolitical, competitive and security risks require a calibrated approach, based on selective investments, local partnerships and risk mitigation strategies, supported by coordination between Chinese industry and diplomacy.