They are almost all male. Almost a third have criminal records and look for easy jobs to earn a few thousand euros. Ideological affinity with Russia plays a role for a smaller group. But there are also naive students who respond to messages on social media and have no idea of the sender’s intentions.
See here the profile of what in international circles the ‘disposable agent‘ is called: the ‘disposable agent’ that together with others near London, set fire to a warehouse containing aid supplies for Ukraine. Or deliver packages containing flammable material to a delivery point for a DHL aircraft. Or stroll past the Europol building in The Hague to tap the WiFi with a trendy device.
They are called disposable agents because the principals can get rid of them quickly and easily. The person in question often knows nothing and costs little: setting fire to the warehouse yielded around 10,000 euros – but now also at least eight years in a British cell. There is also little preparation or training required. ‘Agent’ is a big word. In the pecking order of Russia’s shadow war against the West, he is a useful idiot.
Russian sabotage actions
Prof.dr. BW Schuurman.
Photo STUDIO ARASH
Researcher Bart Schuurman, professor of terrorism and political violence at Leiden University, delved into the subject of Russian sabotage actions and the people behind them. After studying the patterns of about fifty different actions within Europe at the end of last year, this year he focused on the people behind the arson and other actions. Based on communications from authorities such as Europol, public prosecutors in the Netherlands and numerous media reports, the professor made a list of 127 people who are suspected or have now been convicted in Europe. In anticipation of publication of his findings next year, Schuurman will talk about the most important results.
What stood out to you in your research this year on the disposable agents?
“They are on average older than I thought. You currently hear a lot about adolescents who take on all kinds of criminal jobs with the promise of making quick money, but you see less of these young groups here. They are often in their thirties, such as some suspects in the DHL case and people who were involved in an attempt to kidnap a journalist from investigative platform Bellingcat from the United Kingdom to Russia. The 17-year-old students who were arrested for ‘wifi sniffing’ in The Hague are among the exceptions in this respect.
One Ukrainian was involved in sending flammable DHL packages in the Netherlands
“Furthermore, the disproportionately large group of Ukrainians is striking: 24 of the 127 people I examined came from that country. Two of them recently identified as suspects in the sabotage of the railway in Poland with explosives. The strong Ukrainian presence, as well as Moldovans, Bulgarians and people with (dual) Russian nationality, suggests that cultural affinity and linguistic affinity with Russia play a role in recruitment. An additional advantage for the Russian services is that the mood will increase if it turns out that there are disposable agents among them, which could undermine support for Kyiv in the war.”
How can you be so sure the Russians are behind it?
“There is little public information about how the agents are managed. Yet there are enough indications of Russian involvement. First of all, the phenomenon is not new; we know that Russian services use these types of agents. However, the scale on which has increased sharply after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Moscow has since been trying to undermine European support for that country. After that raid, many Russian diplomats, including many intelligence officers, were expelled by Western governments. This made it necessary for Moscow to switch to a modus operandi. The switch turned out to be successful: quite a few people are willing to take a lot of personal risk for relatively little money.
“Western intelligence services and investigative agencies have also found traces that point to Moscow, such as crypto payments to disposable agents. They also find contact details that can be linked to employees of Russian intelligence such as the GRU and FSB. Not all Russian intelligence officers are equally careful in shielding their role as client.”
The British think tank Earlier this year, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) raised serious questions about the usefulness of disposable agents. According to the think tank, their inexperience, lack of resources and preparation increases the chance of premature detection and failure of actions. You seem to rate the usefulness of disposable agents more highly.
“You have to distinguish between individual effectiveness and the usefulness of these officers as a group. I agree with the IISS that most disposable officers are amateurs with very limited capabilities. This is also evident from the relatively large numbers who are caught without being able to reveal much to the police. Nevertheless, some appear capable of dangerous sabotage actions. Moreover, quantity can compensate for their individual lack of quality: to sow fear and harm the West. The affected European countries have lost a multitude of resources and manpower to track down and prosecute them, not to mention the costs of repairing the damage suffered.”
What do you know about how disposable officers are approached and prepared?
“This approach often takes place in social media channels such as Telegram where pro-Russian or NATO-critical groups are active. People who are active there can be approached and asked if they would like to help put an anti-NATO message on the street, for example. The stickers are printed by the client and sent to an address where the disposable agent can collect them. You are also often asked to submit a photo or video of the stickers.
“If approved, the next step for the recruit may be: make a Molotov cocktail and throw it against something in a deserted place. And show us that. In this way, it is not only assessed whether people can do something, but also what they dare to do.
It is also interesting that approximately one third of disposable agents are deployed multiple times
“It is also interesting that about a third of disposable officers are deployed multiple times. They can therefore make a career if they prove to be useful. These officers are also ‘disposable‘ but not necessarily for single use.”
What are the roles of disposable agents?
“You have the agents who actually carry out the jobs, they are in fact on the ‘front line’. But there are also disposable agents who coordinate the implementation, or recruit new people through the channels mentioned. Some disposable agents serve purely as a channel for instructions, so that Russia can more credibly claim that they had nothing to do with an action.”
You pay no attention to the possible role of disposable agents in disinformation, drone incidents or cyber hacks. Why not?
“Disinformation via social media is often outsourced to so-called troll factories in Russia that specialize in this. As far as I can see, there are fewer disposable agents involved. This autumn’s hype about drones came too late for me, I concluded my preliminary research in August.
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“Of all the cyber hacks, I only looked at the ones that had a physical effect, such as lasting hours opening a dam in Norway in August this year. These often appear to be carried out by Russian or pro-Russian hacker groups, and not specifically.”
What can the West do against the use of disposable agents?
“A lot is already happening. Changes in legislation on, for example, the criminalization of in countries such as the Netherlands and the United Kingdom also made possible a tougher approach to disposable officers, which leads to high sentences, such as for the arsonists of the warehouse. There is also already a lot in Europe between police and intelligence services in the field of digital forensics, for example. It is interesting in this context that the number of Russians against Europe in 2025 will be about 40 percent lower than in 2024. One of the reasons is that Western services and investigative authorities are gaining more and more control over it.
“Yet I am afraid that Moscow will continue on this path. The fact that Russia has been getting away with this for years shows, as far as I am concerned, that Europe has insufficient deterrent potential; ourdeterrence’ leaves much to be desired. Especially now that Europe is increasingly geopolitically alone, it is high time that it becomes more resilient and makes it clear to Moscow that it will take countermeasures if Russian hybrid actions continue.”
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