Saxo Bank sees a SpaceX IPO beyond the trillion mark in 2026 and the starting signal for an “extraterrestrial economy”. Why the extreme scenario is not completely out of thin air.
• Saxo Bank expects the largest IPO in history
• Reports of a SpaceX IPO in 2026 are fueling the imagination
• PwC sees the space economy already on a strong growth path
Saxo Bank paints the extreme: SpaceX as the spark of a new economy
Saxo Bank’s “Outrageous Predictions” are deliberately pointed mind games and not a classic market outlook. For 2026, the institute is drawing up a scenario that will make even experienced investors sit up and take notice: After successful tests of the Starship system, SpaceX could go public and debut with a valuation well above $1 trillion.
According to Saxo Bank, such an IPO would… Financial markets electrify. SpaceX is set to massively expand its launch capacity and transport payloads into Earth orbit and towards the Moon and Mars on an unprecedented scale. This could create new business models, from orbital manufacturing to large-scale lunar projects. The bank speaks of the birth of an “extraterrestrial economy”. At the same time, Saxo emphasizes that this is a scenario with a low probability of occurrence, which is primarily intended to illustrate the possible consequences of a technological leap.
IPO fantasy with substance: This is what we know about SpaceX 2026
However, the topic is not as far removed from reality as Saxo’s vision initially seems. Elon Musk’s space company SpaceX is already in talks with banks about a possible IPO in 2026. According to Reuters, the target valuation is expected to be over $1 trillion, and the planned capital raising is more than $25 billion. The main growth driver is the Starlink satellite internet.
TechCrunch also reports advanced IPO plans, citing Bloomberg. Accordingly, SpaceX could raise around $30 billion, with a valuation of around $1.5 trillion. That would replace Saudi Aramco’s IPO as the largest IPO in history. Recent secondary sales of employee shares also suggest valuations of over $800 billion.
PwC: The space economy is growing rapidly
The market environment at least provides a basis for these expectations. According to PwC, the global space economy reached $570 billion in 2023. This corresponds to growth of 7.4 percent compared to the previous year and almost doubled within ten years. Striking: around 80 percent of sales now come from commercial activities.
PwC expects the space economy could grow to as much as $2 trillion by 2040. The drivers are falling launch costs, advances in reusable rockets and increasing demand for satellites, data and communications services. New fields such as in-orbit manufacturing or cislunar infrastructure are also becoming increasingly important. Against this background, Saxo Banks’ vision of a significantly expanded space economy no longer appears to be completely detached from real trends.
Great opportunities, but also new risks
As big as the imagination is, market observers also clearly identify the risks. PwC points to regulatory uncertainties, such as property rights in space, security issues and international coordination. It also remains unclear how quickly the necessary infrastructure can actually be built.
Reuters also highlights the role of Elon Musk out. Analysts warn that a publicly traded SpaceX could increase pressure to focus more on a single company. The bottom line is that Saxo Bank’s forecast remains an extreme scenario. But real IPO plans and strong industry growth show that space travel is more than science fiction and could become a serious future market for investors.
Editorial team finanzen.net