VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz looked elated, almost triumphant, on Monday afternoon after a conversation with informant Sybrand Buma (CDA). To resolve the political impasse, the VVD will participate in discussions about a ‘basic coalition agreement’. This could lead to a minority coalition of D66, CDA and VVD with 66 seats, but it could also be the prelude to other variants, such as a right-wing coalition with JA21.
Yesilgöz emphatically kept the last option open when leaving the formation area. “It is a nice intermediate step. A majority cabinet can also be the final stop,” she said.
The VVD, Klaver repeated once again, is ‘rewarded’ for spoiling the game
In recent weeks, it was Yesilgöz, among others, who locked down the formation because she refused to talk to GroenLinks-PvdA. D66, in turn, has little desire to form a coalition with the right-wing populist JA21. The solution of scout Wouter Koolmees (D66) to have D66 and CDA negotiate a joint text on five sub-topics did not appear to convince other parties last week. Last Thursday, Buma reported that no combination – majority or minority cabinet – was possible. “All positions [van de partijen] are still as they were in the beginning,” said the informant.
This made the formation seem back to square one on Friday. At the same time, the deadline for Buma’s final report, which he must submit this week, was approaching. In a last attempt to prevent the formation from coming to a standstill, feverish discussions took place last weekend. With some effect, as it turned out on Monday.
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Fifteen minutes
From the official car, Buma called the party leaders of VVD, CDA, D66 and separately with JA21 early in the morning. Then at 11 a.m. Jesse Klaver (GroenLinks-PvdA) was summoned to the formation area. The face-to-face interview with D66 leader Rob Jetten, CDA faction chairman Henri Bontenbal and Yesilgöz then took no more than fifteen minutes.
What exactly agreement had been reached on was not entirely clear a few hours later, during the presentation of Buma’s final report. This way the old blockages stand proudly. As a result, it is certain that the formation will continue with three parties, but it is still uncertain which coalition the talks between D66, CDA and VVD will result in. For example, Buma stated that he still considers a coalition with GroenLinks-PvdA possible in theory – despite the VVD blockade.
In the meantime, Jesse Klaver had already drawn his conclusions: his party will no longer intervene. The VVD, the leader of GroenLinks-PvdA repeated once again, is thus “rewarded” for spoiling the game. Klaver called the possibility of a three-party coalition without a parliamentary majority a “risky experiment” that will not provide “stability”. “Look around you: the world is on fire. The Americans seem to be retreating, war is threatening on the borders of the Kingdom (the Antilles).”
JA21 still sees a role for itself. Last week, party leader Joost Eerdmans announced that he did not see anything in a ‘tolerance construction’, in which JA21 would help a minority coalition of D66, CDA and VVD gain majorities. Now Buma writes in the final report that the party “wants to think about this”.
Priorities
Interestingly enough, the content is not the biggest problem in this formation. Buma concludes in the final report that almost all parties in the House see “connections” in the text that D66 and CDA agreed on. Yesilgöz already announced this morning that, as far as she is concerned, the agreement does not have to be thrown out “in its entirety”, but that she did want to put a number of different accents. The VVD leader mentioned (domestic) security and public finances – read: cuts – as priorities.
For example, D66 and CDA have expressly committed to increasing defense expenditure to 3.5 percent of GDP (which structurally requires an additional 15 billion). But the parties have not yet decided which items should be cut for this purpose.
I prefer to have as sturdy a cabinet as possible
The question becomes much more important who wants to support the agreement that the three parties want to conclude – either in the form of partial agreements or in the form of government participation. A three-party cabinet of D66, CDA and VVD may have some perseverance with 66 seats in the House of Representatives, but is hardly a factor in the Senate with 21 of the 75 seats.
In the final report, Buma strongly recommends looking for parties that are willing to support possible plans in the next phase. Yesilgöz does not rule out that other parties will still join the coalition. “I prefer to have as strong a cabinet as possible.”
‘Campaign mode’
To make that possible, either the VVD or D66 will have to step over their shadows. During the presentation, Buma told the journalists an old wisdom: formation means give and take. According to the informant, the discussions in recent weeks have led to better understanding and the faction leaders are starting to get out of their “campaign mode”.
The informant expects that a majority of the House of Representatives will agree to the next ‘phase’ in the formation on Wednesday, during the debate on his report.
D66 leader Rob Jetten said afterwards that he was “very happy” that this had in any case been achieved. “All party leaders worked until Friday to put together a majority coalition, but it became clear that that is simply not possible at this stage.”
“It will be a complicated conversation,” said Henri Bontenbal. “But ultimately we are all responsible for the governance of the country.”
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