BThere is an image alone that suggests the atmosphere of the country: “We have entered the savage age of iron and fire”. It opens like this the last one Censis reportwith a surprisingly strong formula compared to the sober tones usually used by the institute, but which serves to tell the story of deep fears, of a tense social climate, of an Italy that perceives itself as more fragile and more exposed. There is not only this, however: there is also an Italy capable at the same time of find unexpected energies in relationships, in the private sphere, in bonds and even in pleasure.
The age of iron and fire
“Italy in the wild age of iron and fire”. It is not the incipit of a dystopian novel, but the state of the art of our society, according to the analysis of the research institute. A merciless x-ray which goes beyond economic numbers, also exploring the emotions, feelings, even the spirituality of millions of Italians. What emerges is a chiaroscuro portrait: a country that doesn’t feel safe and where the seduction towards authoritarian regimes increases. The most disturbing fact? Thirty percent of Italians look favorably on autocraciesdeeming them “more suited to the spirit of the times”. A percentage that says a lot about how deep the crisis of trust in traditional democratic institutions is.
Censis report: the long shadow of debt
But let’s start with the numbers that influence everything else. The Large Italian public debtIn fact, it is not just an item in the budget laws: it is a shadow that lengthens over the future of children and grandchildren. In simple words, Italy today it spends more to pay interest on debt than on investments in health, school and welfare or in the environment. This imbalance inaugurates, according to Censis, the century of post-welfare societies, where the welfare state increasingly becomes a thing of the past.
The Censis report depicts an Italy that is aged, indebted and disillusioned with politics. But who reacts to the crisis (Getty Images)
Disillusionment with everything
Distrust towards institutions, however, is a broad phenomenon. Italians look at Europe with growing skepticism And to the entire Western world. Practically, more than six out of ten Italians think that the European Union, in the end, you count for nothing when it comes to major global decisions. There is a fact that makes you think a lot: for the majority of Italians, iprogress, the future, growth, are no longer here with us, but they moved to Asia, especially China and India. In short, the perception is that of a not-so-slow decline anymore.
The decline of participation
Demonstrating how much citizens no longer believe in the institutions, the ballot boxes are progressively emptying: in the 2022 political elections, abstentions reached a record thirty-six point one percent of those eligible, nine percentage points more than in 2018. But even the squares, once the beating heart of democratic participation, have become empty. In 2003 almost seven percent of Italians took part in marches and demonstrations; twenty years later the percentage halved, stopping at three point three percent. The only recent exceptions? The pro-Palestine demonstrations, which have filled the streets of many cities over the last year.
The only leader who convinces
In this desert of trust, there is only one figure who gathers consensus: Pope Leo XIVwhich obtains the trust of sixty point seven percent of Italians. He is the only leader with global projection to cross the fifty percent threshold. After him, at a great distance, we find the Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez with forty-four point nine percent, followed by German leader Merz and from President of the European Commission von der Leyen. All the others, from Macron to Starmer, from Trump to Putin, stop well below thirty percent.
The disappearing middle class
The numbers also tell a story an inexorable decline of the middle class. For years, Censis has been denouncing the impoverishment and progressive disappearance of the pillar on which Italian society has supported itself for decades. In twenty years, from 2004 to 2024, the number of business owners has dwindled from over three million four hundred thousand to just over two million eight hundred thousand: a drop of seventeen percent, almost six hundred thousand fewer entrepreneurs.
Doing business no longer convinces those under 30
The most worrying data concerns young people: the number of people under 30 who do business has decreased by forty-six point two percent. THEpopulation aging and birth rates in free fallFurthermore, it is drying up the nursery of Italian entrepreneurship. But the other pillar of the middle class is also weakening: dependent work. In 2024 the real value of wages was 8.7 percent lower than in 2007, before the great financial crisis. Purchasing power per capita suffered a 6 percent cut. Percentages to say that the middle class lives in the real risk of losing the status achieved with difficulty over time.
The response of emotions
There is an area, however, where the Censis report surprises, revealing an unexpected aspect of Italian society. In front of what is called the “Grand Hotel Abisso”the image of a country on the edge of the precipice, Italians react by clinging to the pleasures of life. First of all sex, freed from ancient moral and religious censorship. The data speaks clearly: almost two thirds of Italians between eighteen and sixty have a very intense sexual lifeon a weekly basis. Only eight point five percent say they never have sex. Among young people under 35 the percentage rises further.
The culture that retreats
And while sexual life is intense, traditional cultural consumption retreats. Over the last twenty years Italian families’ spending on culture has drastically reduced. Today we spend just over twelve billion euros a year on culture, just a third of what we invest in smartphones, computers and telephony and data traffic services, which together exceed thirty-two billion. The strongest contraction concerns newspapers and books. Yet Italians have not stopped going to cinemas, theaters and concerts. In short, the way of consuming culture has changed, not necessarily the desire for culture.
An increasingly older country
Italy, then, is aging visibly. Today almost one in four Italians is over sixty-five years old: that’s almost fifteen million people. Sixty years ago they were less than half. And the trend doesn’t stop: in twenty years the elderly will be a third of the population. Not only that: the centenarians today there are over twenty-three thousand. Numbers that tell the story of a society that has to deal with increasingly pressing costs and needs. In this scenario, I just am immigrants present in Italy with their families who are the youngest in the world slow down this collective aging. But here another difficult chapter opens: the majority of Italians look at foreigners with distrust and six out of ten would like to limit arrivals.
Censis photographs a country living on the brink, but not yet falling
The Italy that emerges from the Censis report is therefore a country of paradoxes. Scared of the future but vital in the present. Distrustful of politics but in need of leadership. Aged but still capable of desire. It is the image of a nation living on the brink, aware of the fragility of his own condition but not yet resigned. A nation that seeks refuge in relationships, in intimacy, because the great collective narratives seem to have dissolved. It is not yet clear whether this is enough to hold a country together, certainly it is a sign that Italians always find a way to resist, even when everything seems to be working against it.