Because of the ongoing economic crisis in Germany, many families’ Christmas presents will probably be a little more modest this year: according to a company survey by the Munich Ifo Institute, only a minority of 10 percent of retailers expect good Christmas business. Almost half expect average sales, a quarter expect poor business. “Many retailers are entering the most important sales phase of the year without much hope,” said Ifo survey leader Klaus Wohlrabe.
A good 42 percent expect a deterioration compared to the previous year. Toy stores are above average pessimistic, only booksellers are optimists in the majority, according to Ifo. The Ifo Institute surveys several thousand companies every month for its economic surveys.
Consumer climate at previous year’s level
The Nuremberg research institutes GfK and NIM come to a slightly different assessment, looking at the consumer climate from the perspective of buyers. Consumers are in a similar spending mood as last year, said NIM consumer expert Rolf Bürkl. “This is also good news for retailers with a view to the end of the year.” Compared to the previous month, the research institutes’ consumer climate indicator predicts an increase of 0.9 points to -23.2 points for December.
The propensity to buy – i.e. the willingness to buy larger things in the near future – rose by 3.3 points to -6.0 points. At the same time, the propensity to save fell by 2.1 points to 13.7 points. However, worsening income prospects prevented a stronger recovery, it was said. “On the one hand, this shows a certain stability in consumer sentiment, but on the other hand, it also shows that consumers are not expecting a significant recovery in the short term,” summarized Bürkl.
In a longer-term comparison, the consumer climate continues to show weak values. Before the corona pandemic, the indicator was stable in positive territory.