This is stated by the Scientific Council for Government Policy in a report on the consequences of the changing world population. As a result, the Netherlands is being hit as a trading nation. Not only is our country highly dependent on migrant workers, companies often produce abroad and export there.
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There are already often no Poles in what are colloquially called ‘Polish vans’, but Bulgarians, Greeks or Romanians, notes Rotterdam professor Casper de Vries. He is involved in the WRR report as an economist and councilor. “Soon we will have to bring people from even further away. Migrants from Central and Eastern Europe will choose to work in their own country. The aging of the population is happening even faster for them than for us.”
Fewer Chinese
The population is also aging rapidly in China, the global supplier of products and semi-finished products. In about 25 years, as many as 300 million fewer Chinese will be available to work in local factories, writes the WRR. That is as many people as the current working population of the entire European Union.
“Companies will soon move part of their production to India,” predicts Gijsbert Werner, senior researcher at the WRR. “The labor supply in Europe and China is shrinking, but the number of inhabitants in a country like India is growing. That will probably become the new factory of the world. It will take over some of the work from the Chinese.”
The population size is also increasing in Indonesia, the Philippines and Bangladesh. Millions of people go there looking for a job. Western companies will therefore move part of their production to these countries. At the same time, young people in particular may choose to work elsewhere as migrant workers.
On the blisters
“Governing means looking ahead, we in the Netherlands cannot close our eyes to this,” says De Vries. “There is a sense of urgency. We cannot change course overnight, but it has to happen. Despite the aversion that some politicians have to migration. It is just like with defense. For years we thought we could cut back on this. Now we are in dire straits.”
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Other European countries, including Germany and Italy, are already concluding migration pacts to ensure they can find enough skilled workers in the future. Werner: “The big advantage is that we can get more control over the influx of migrants from outside the EU. You can arrange this, for example, with permits. Or with visas. But then we have to take action.”
Development money
This also applies when it comes to the choice of countries with which the Netherlands will soon do business. Nowadays, these countries are mainly located in Europe, with Germany as the most important trading partner. The question is whether it will remain that way. “The business community has a good nose for this, to find new emerging markets,” says De Vries. “But it would help entrepreneurs if the government signed agreements with countries with many young people. Then trade would run more smoothly.”
This does not mean an almost complete stop with development cooperation, as the previous government announced. Werner: “To be honest, it is in our own interest if we continue to invest in countries in the Global South. That is where the growth potential of the future lies. We have to entice young people to come and work here for a few years. They then take the knowledge they gain back home with them.”
Preference lists
Both call on the future cabinet to hasten the signing of the Mercosur treaty. The Netherlands has still not signed this trade deal between Europe and the countries in Latin America. The WRR also calls it essential for trade missions to potential sales markets, especially to countries where the population is still growing.
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“We have to move along,” says Professor De Vries. “And certainly not look away. The Netherlands is already falling on the preference lists of highly educated knowledge migrants. If we do not invest in this, our business community will miss out on many future growth opportunities.”