World Rugby, the brackets for the draw: Italy risks the All Blacks and Georgia

The November test matches decided the draw slots for the 2027 World Cup, which will be held on Wednesday 3 December in Sydney. In theory, South Africa-Wales would still be missing, but it will be influential given that the Springboks are certainly seeded and the Welsh are certainly in the second tier. The only discriminant to establish the order of the 24 participating teams is in fact the ranking, further defined by a very long series of autumn test matches. The formula is the same as the European football championship, with 6 groups of 4 teams: the top 2 of each group and the 4 best third-placed teams advance. Consequently, the draw includes 4 pots of 6 teams each, in order of ranking: Italy is in the second pot, being tenth and having confirmed its position by beating Australia and Chile in November, and will take a team from each other pot.

Italy: the risks of the draw

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As for the seeded teams, there is little to hope for: they are all teams. From world champion South Africa to the usual All Blacks (who finished in the Azzurri’s group 7 times out of 10 World Cups, almost unbelievable) passing through England, Ireland, France and Argentina. On paper the Pumas might seem more accessible, especially due to their fluctuating nature, but in Udine in 2024 it ended 50-18 for the South Americans. Being in the second pot, Italy will not be able to meet Australia, Fiji, Scotland, Wales and Japan in the groups. The biggest unknowns are in the third: there is the nightmare Georgia, a team capable of sending the Azzurri into crisis on every occasion and which has been demanding a place in the Six Nations for years, even if the Azzurri’s recent results have extinguished their hopes. On the pitch it is always very tough: in 2024 in Genoa it ended 19-15 in a comeback for Italy, which bordered on psychodrama, while in 2022 in the bedlam of Batumi the Lelos won 28-19. Also pay attention to Uruguay, an opponent that Italy is particularly suffering from: at the 2023 World Cup the Azzurri were saved after a nightmare first half in which they went 10 points down, and a week earlier the South Americans had also put hosts France in difficulty. Even in 2021 it was very tough: 17-10 in Parma in a bad match. Also pay attention to Spain, 15th in the ranking and growing greatly, and above all an unknown because the Azzurri have not met them since 2002. In the fourth pot, watch out for Samoa: they are experiencing a terrible crisis, but the World Cup is a year and a half away and they could recover, becoming a complicated opponent for anyone. Only a year ago they beat the Azzurri. Also watch out for Portugal, a tough and growing team.

the most affordable teams

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Speaking of the first tier, where apart from a few more opportunities with Argentina they would all be very tough opponents, the third tier also offers teams that are well within Italy’s reach: the USA, who appeared to have little to offer in these autumn tests, are the most manageable opponent in the third tier, as is Tonga who are not going through a great moment and have dropped in level for years. Then there’s Chile who put a reshuffled Italy in difficulty in Genoa, but never really gave the impression of being able to take the match home, so much so that Quesada’s team only had to accelerate a little – despite playing badly – to win clearly. In the fourth tier, said of Samoa and Portugal, the other 4 should not create problems: Romania (now a fallen noble), Zimbabwe, Hong Kong and Canada are all affordable. In short, an iron group could emerge with a first-tier team, Georgia and Samoa (or Portugal), but also a fairly easy grouping for the Azzurri, with the USA or Chile in the third tier and Zimbabwe, Hong Kong, Canada and Romania in the fourth.

watch the scoreboard

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Getting through as runners-up is the minimum objective for the Azzurri, also to avoid an unrealistic round of 16 and attempt the feat of reaching the quarter-finals for the first time. In reality, the hopes of accessing the quarterfinals are linked above all to the draw: the scoreboard in fact foresees that the second-placed teams from groups A, C, E and F will meet each other, while the second-placed teams from groups B and D will beat a first-placed team from the other groups. Clearly, meeting the All Blacks or South Africa or meeting Wales or Fiji in the round of 16 makes a lot of difference, and in this case it could just be luck that decides it. Considering that hosts Australia (in the second pot) are already automatically included in group A, the Azzurri must hope to finish in group C, E or F in order to have a playable round of 16 final by qualifying second.

here are the 4 bands

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These are the 2027 Rugby World Cup brackets, defined by the ranking:

First band: South Africa, New Zealand, England, Ireland, France, Argentina

Second tier: Australia, Fiji, Scotland, Italy, Wales, Japan

Third band: Georgia, Uruguay, Spain, United States, Chile, Tonga

Fourth band: Samoa, Portugal, Romania, Hong Kong, Zimbabwe, Canada