San Marino in the world playoffs: there is a remote possibility

San Marino, last in the FIFA rankings and with only one goal scored in seven World Cup qualifying matches (compared to 32 goals conceded), is not exactly the national team one imagines in the most prestigious football tournament. With just over 34,000 inhabitants, the small Republic seems cut off from any world championship ambitions. Yet, within the folds of international regulations, there is a paradoxical scenario that still keeps it, at least theoretically, in the running.

regulation

—

Europe has 16 places for the World Cup: 12 go to the top teams in each of the 12 groups, while the runners-up play another four slots in a 16-team playoff. Added to these are four “spare” places, reserved for the winners of the 14 groups of the 2024 Nations League who are not already qualified or already admitted to the playoff via the traditional route. This is where San Marino comes in. In the 2024-25 Nations League they won their three-team mini-group, beating Liechtenstein twice and picking up a draw and a defeat against Gibraltar. This gives her the right to enter a special ranking among the 14 group winners. The problem is that San Marino is last on this list: for one of the four playoff places to reach it, 10 of the 13 teams in front must have already resolved the qualification, finishing first or second in their respective groups.

minus two

—

On the eve of the last week of matches, eight of these national teams have already secured the pass or have in any case guaranteed themselves the playoffs through the qualifiers. Therefore, only two are missing for the scenario to be completed and the “reserve place” can theoretically slide all the way to San Marino. Here comes the most curious short circuit: some results, in particular those involving Romania and Northern Ireland (both Nations League group winners), could tidy up the boxes in such a way that Romania finds itself fighting for second place in group H, the same as San Marino. In that case, the match on 18 November between Romania and San Marino would take on a paradoxical meaning: a large victory for the Romanians would increase their chances of qualifying via the traditional route and, at the same time, free up their “Nations League” place, which could be inherited by San Marino. The result is an almost surreal image: the weakest national team in the world which, to continue chasing the World Cup, would have every interest in losing with as many goals as possible. A regulatory anomaly that shows how modern football, between formats and repechages, can generate entanglements in which even the last team in the standings, for once, is allowed to dream.