Ticket within your grasp
©IMAGO
The World Cup ticket is within your grasp. The flaw of the false start in qualifying has almost been resolved. After the 2-0 defeat in Slovakia, Julian Nagelsmann and the DFB team won the following three games against Northern Ireland (3:1/1:0) and Luxembourg (4:0). The German team therefore goes into the final qualifying round as leaders of Group A with nine points, ahead of Slovakia and Northern Ireland with the same points (6 points). In the games against bottom team Luxembourg (0 points) on Friday (8:45 p.m./RTL) and against Slovakia on November 17th (8:45 p.m./ZDF) in Leipzig, participation in the 2026 World Cup should now be made clear.
“With two wins, we want to make our World Cup qualification perfect – and on top of that we want to get into the first draw for the World Cup groups in four weeks. Then we can push forward and flesh out our plans for 2026,” said the national coach.
How does Germany buy the direct World Cup ticket?
If the DFB team wins in Luxembourg and against Slovakia, they will definitely qualify for the World Cup. But it can also get more complicated. There are a total of six other variants, such as Germany ending up in first place with four, three, two or even just one point from the last two games, which secures a direct route to America.
However, the results of the parallel games between Slovakia and Northern Ireland and the same against Luxembourg are also relevant for these constellations. In the event of a tie, the goal difference from all games and not the direct comparison of two or more teams is relevant. Nagelsmann will want to avoid any calculations.
What happens if we miss out on winning the group?
Even in second or third place in Group A, Germany can still qualify for the World Cup. Then playoff games would have to be played again for the first time since 2001. At that time, DFB sports director Rudi Völler, as team boss, led the selection around captain Michael Ballack and goalkeeper Oliver Kahn against Ukraine (1:1/4:1) at the tournament in Japan and South Korea, which ended in runner-up in the World Cup.
As second in the group, Germany would be among the four best teams in the playoff draw on November 20th in Zurich and could definitely play the first of two knockout games at home at the end of March 2026. Third in the group, a tough opponent would be waiting in the first round. As of now, Italy or Poland would be possible opponents in an away game. Germany secured the right to take this detour by winning the group in the Nations League last year as a World Cup parachute.
Nagelsmann will definitely want to avoid using it. Especially since the four-time world champion Germany would then only end up as a placeholder in the fourth pot in the World Cup draw on December 5th – with difficult group opponents in the final round as a consequence. Germany can no longer finish fourth in the group in the qualification because Luxembourg is already relegated.
Why are two wins at the end of the group still important?
Nagelsmann has been preaching to look at the world rankings for months. It is the criterion for the seeding list in the group draw. After a lot of ups and downs, it now seems certain: If Germany wins both games, their pursuers Croatia and Morocco could no longer overtake Germany in 10th place in the ranking.
Since Italy is in danger of missing out on direct qualification, the DFB team, in tenth place, would be one of the nine best-placed and certainly qualified World Cup teams. Then you would be in the best draw pot, which will also include the three hosts USA, Mexico and Canada. Nagelsmann would be spared a big chunk of the World Cup like Spain or Argentina in the group phase – as was Mexico Group A with adverse logistics and extreme climate.
What happens next for Nagelsmann after the November games?
December 5th is marked heavily in the national coach’s calendar. Then the World Cup groups will be drawn at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington (6:00 p.m./CET). After that, Nagelsmann not only knows the three group opponents, but also the venues and kick-off times.
Then the DFB can also make a decision for the team quarters. So far there are apparently at least three variants to cover all regional World Cup clusters on the east and west coasts and in the heart of the USA.
Subject to direct qualification, test matches have already been agreed on March 30th in Stuttgart against Ivory Coast and on May 31st in Mainz against Finland. Then we should go to America. Two more test opponents are still open, one for the end of March and one for the final World Cup overseas at the beginning of June.