Just two months ago, defending the title seemed out of reach for Formula 1 series world champion Max Verstappen. After the home race in Zandvoort, the superstar was a whopping 104 points behind championship leader Oscar Piastri, whose McLaren teammate Lando Norris was 70 points ahead. But the balance of power has shifted dramatically.
Since the Dutch race at the end of August, Max Verstappen has won the Grands Prix of Italy, Azerbaijan and the USA, and also reached the podium in Singapore and most recently in Mexico.
While Oscar Piastri drifted into a veritable form crisis at an absolutely inopportune time and recently even lost the championship lead to Lando Norris, the Red Bull driver has long been back. Four race weekends before the end of the season, Verstappen is back within striking distance and close to being able to become world champion again on his own.
These are three realistic scenarios as to how the fifth Drivers’ World Championship in a row could work out for Max Verstappen.
Scenario 1: Verstappen dominates and receives involuntary help
It is no longer out of the question that Max Verstappen can win the last four races in Brazil, in the USA (Las Vegas), in Qatar and in Abu Dhabi in the resurgent RB21. The Red Bull has improved in all respects and has been able to close the gap to the initially superior McLaren. Verstappen himself has been showing outstanding performances for months and appears by far the most confident and confident in the three-way battle for the title.
If the 28-year-old wins all four races plus the two sprint races in Sao Paulo and Doha, he will still be dependent on at least one help from his competitors.
Because if Lando Norris finishes second in all remaining (sprint) races, that would still be enough for him to win the world championship title. The same applies to Oscar Piastri, who is currently only one point behind his teammate.
But if the McLaren stable rivals dispute each other’s points or even if the competitors from Mercedes or Ferrari intervene, it could still be enough for Max Verstappen.
Scenario 2: The McLarens shoot each other out
It is currently the horror of all those responsible at McLaren around CEO Zak Brown and team boss Andrea Stella: Despite the much-quoted “Papaya Rules”, teammates Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have already collided twice over the course of this season; in Montreal and Austin the two lost valuable championship points, which could now be missing twice or three times.
It is now by no means out of the question that one of the two World Cup rivals will lose their nerve again and there will be another internal team crash. Max Verstappen is already waiting for exactly this scenario and could jump directly to the McLaren duo in such a case.
By the way: Verstappen himself doesn’t have to fear an accident with his own stable rival, just as Red Bull colleague Yuki Tsunoda has been chasing after him for months.
Video: World Cup chance for Verstappen? That’s what Ecclestone says
Scenario 3: “The trend is your friend”
Since the Monza race at the beginning of September, the wind in Formula 1 has changed. The Red Bull has been able to make up for its deficits in terms of balance, downforce, aerodynamics and tire wear compared to McLaren. Including the Austin Sprint, Verstappen has achieved a top-three finish seven times in a row.
If Verstappen’s own yield and that of his two competitors Norris and Piastri continued until the end, it would be enough for Verstappen. The calculation is as follows: Since Monza, Verstappen has scored an average of 23.2 points over the last five race weekends, while Norris only scored 16.4 points and Piastri only scored 9.4 points.
If this impressive turnaround continues, Max Verstappen will still win his fifth drivers’ title in a row at the big season finale on the first weekend in December in Abu Dhabi.