Just a week ago, the consensus was that the electorate, fed up with mistreatment, was about to divorce Javier Milei. Few suspected that he was preparing for a second honeymoon but, to the surprise of virtually everyone, it was what was on his collective mind. Without warning the pollsters who were predicting a tie, millions who ended up voting for La Libertad Avanza had come to the conclusion that it would be better not to part with the foul-mouthed and quarrelsome president because in that case they would run the risk of provoking a political and economic crisis of gigantic proportions.
The fear that so many felt can be understood. They knew that it would have unhappy consequences for almost all of the country’s inhabitants to challenge the financial markets that were devouring the increasingly scarce reserves and the finicky North American President Donald Trump who, to the indignation of many, had made it clear that he would not help Argentina if the electorate made the mistake of repudiating Milei.
Was the victory of milleism as overwhelming as many, including Trump, say? The truth is no: the majority voted for independent or opposition factions, many boycotted the dark rooms and the government will not have a quorum in any chamber of the national Congress. Although the votes garnered by La Libertad Avanza allowed it to surpass the Peronist Fuerza Patria by a very respectable margin, Milei and his collaborators would do well to recognize that they are far from having the support of the majority and that, to carry out the structural reforms that have been proposed, they will have to greatly expand their base of legislative support.
His American godfathers, Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, whose intervention prevented the financial markets from exploding on the eve of the elections, understand this very well. Even if such a catastrophe did not have a decisive impact on the results, the costs for many millions of people would have been very high and the prospects for the country and the government would have become nightmarish. In exchange for the unprecedented financial support they gave him, the two want Milei to reconcile with ideological allies like Mauricio Macri to form a coalition that is strong enough to ensure that Argentina continues on the path it has taken.
Although Milei publicly thanked Trump and Bessent for the invaluable help they provided him at a key moment, it would be natural if he internally tended to attribute the failure to his own merits and to the strategic astuteness of his sister Karina. Needless to say, it would be better for him and for the country to blame it on the failures of others and then concentrate on remedying the patent defects of a government whose members have become accustomed to privileging their personal grudges.
Before the legislative elections, those worried about what might happen wondered how the government would react to a humiliating defeat. They assumed that in that case he would ask for help from like-minded politicians like Macri, but since Sunday night they have been disturbed by the possibility that Milei will be tempted to take the message sent to him by the electorate for a personal claim.
When Milei realized that he had emerged victorious from the dangerous electoral test, he impressed everyone by giving a strikingly moderate speech. For some, the fact that the rock president was the only libertarian in the official “bunker” to dress like a respectable professional, with a suit and tie, was a significant detail. Had he mentally prepared himself to endure the defeat that so many had predicted? It is probable; After all, he himself called the victory “a miracle,” thereby insinuating that until then he had understood that La Libertad Avanza deserved to lose due to its own often unruly conduct and rumors of corruption in the ruling core in addition, of course, to the disappointing performance of the real economy.
In New York, London and other financial centers, the pessimism that so many had felt was replaced by a wave of enthusiasm that made Argentine stocks jump with joy and reduced the country risk index by almost half, which, as signs proliferated that Milei’s government was approaching a precipice, had reached levels appropriate for a disaster zone. Would the change in mood that has occurred be enough to unleash the long-delayed “torrent of investments” that Milei dreams of, as Macri did when he was in the Casa Rosada? It is possible, since today there are few countries that are in a position to offer those willing to risk as many opportunities to profit as Argentina, which has a multitude of mining resources, including the coveted rare earths, which, for political reasons, have not yet been fully exploited.
Revived by what had just happened, on Monday Milei overlooked everything that had happened since the beginning of his administration in December 2023 to affirm that, thanks to the victory at the polls of La Libertad Avanza, which, according to him, marked a “hinge point” and the beginning of the construction of “a new Argentina.” He did not allude to the renewal of the government he heads that, until then, he had been contemplating. It seems to be taken for granted that it was not despite the deficiencies of the ruling team that forty percent of the electorate supported Libertad Avanza but because they valued the alleged suitability of all its members. If so, Milei is wrong. There is no reason to assume that many voters wanted to express their approval of the performance of people like Karina Milei and Santiago Caputo. Rather, those who supported mileism will have privileged “the direction” and, of course, the lack of convening alternatives.
To move forward with his project, the president will have to greatly improve the efficiency of an administration that until now has been noted for its amateurism. The current public sector may leave much to be desired, but that does not mean that a country of the size and aspirations of Argentina is capable of functioning well without an effective State which, of course, would have to be in the hands of optimally prepared and adequately remunerated men and women. This is an issue that Milei, who sometimes says he is a “mole” who is determined to sabotage the state by blowing it up from within, has refused to take seriously.
Can La Libertad Avanza become a truly powerful party? Only if Milei realizes that he is still far from being one and that, to perform well the role that society has entrusted to him, he will have to incorporate many people who may be more in tune with the “republican nerds” than with the exalted libertarians but who still want to make a positive contribution to the great work that has been proposed. No matter how bad it is, you won’t be able to afford to continue treating them with contempt.
Be that as it may, the problems that Milei faces are minor compared to those that trouble the Peronist leaders. For Cristina Kirchner and Axel Kiciloff, the electorate’s verdict could hardly have been more humiliating. In the eyes of the majority of the population, Kirchnerism, which for a couple of decades has dominated the movement forged by Juan Domingo Perón, is no longer an option; The fear that Cristina and her troops would return to power motivated many who voted for La Libertad Avanza without feeling faithfully represented by the Milei brothers or by the diverse candidates of the political vehicle they have assembled.
When Cristina criticizes Axel for having split the elections in the province she governs, she implies that she knows very well that the fear caused by the specter of Kirchnerism has been one of Milei’s main assets, one that outweighed her successes in the battle against inflation. According to the lady with the anklet who charms her addicts by dancing on the balcony of the San José 1111 apartment that serves as her prison, her former protégé committed the unforgivable sin of warning the electorate that if Milei’s government were to fall, the Kirchnerist bad guy, with her at the head, would take her place, which is why so many supported La Libertad Avanza last Sunday.
Cristina is right; If it weren’t for the “kuka” menace that she embodies better than anyone, Milei would have had a much harder time getting voters to downplay the importance of his many antics, the doubts regarding the honesty of those around him, and the impact of his iconic chainsaw on people’s daily lives.
For the majority, Kirchnerism is so unfriendly that few find the attempts to create intermediate groups that try to combine the supposedly good things of traditional populism with what they consider an essential dose of fiscal rigor to be convincing. The failure of “centrist” groups, such as the United Provinces, harmed those provincial leaders who had hoped to gain more power to pressure the national government. Unfortunately for them, from now on they will have to choose between approaching the government and seeking refuge in the desert.
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