An all-rugby November that is decisive for the world championship groups. The top immediately Ireland-All Blacks

Just to give you an idea, two years ago in the quarter-finals of the Ireland-All Blacks World Cup it ended with Rieko Ioane telling Johnny Sexton (who had ended his career with that defeat) “enjoy your retirement, b***h” after a fiery and beautiful match, one of the best ever, won by the New Zealanders despite Ireland starting out as huge favourites. Now they find themselves in Chicago, the same place that in 2016 saw the first historic victory of the Irish after 111 years without ever beating New Zealand: from that moment on things have changed, and in the following 9 years the record was 5-5. Furthermore (even if the first game is played in Chicago and not in Europe) the All Blacks will face all 4 of the British Isles to try to complete the Grand Slam and beat them all: Ireland, Scotland, England and Wales. And then there’s France-South Africa: the other quarter-final of that absurd World Cup, with Les Bleus setting out to win the World Cup and eliminated at the heart of it, amid the tears of a dismayed and speechless Stade de France. Not to mention England-All Blacks, with the English looking for revenge after the mocking 22-24 in London last year: it was the match of controversy sparked by Joe Marler, who said “trash the Haka, it’s become ridiculous” triggering an uproar. And then there’s Ireland-South Africa, Northern Hemisphere against Southern Hemisphere again after the two fiery matches in 2024 at the home of the world champions, with the series ending 1-1. And then there is theItalywho on November 8th in Udine will try to replicate the feat of 3 years ago against Australia, to then challenge world champions South Africa on November 15th in Turin and close with Chile on November 22nd in Genoa. These, but not only, are the most anticipated challenges of the Autumn Nations Series.

Italy and the World Cup brackets

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Some test matches are challenges from the final stages of a World Cup, and actually never before have the two things been connected like this year, given that The draws for Australia 2027 are scheduled at the end of the Nations Series and the only discriminating factor to define the 4 bands will be the ranking. Nothing else will count: neither the titles, nor the placings in the last World Cup (which until now made the difference) or anything else. The teams from 1st to 6th place will be seeded, those from 7th to 12th in the second pot, those from 13th to 18th in the third pot, those from 19th to 24th (or rather, 25th, considering that one of Samoa and Belgium will not qualify) in the fourth. This means that every match of an infinite month can make a difference, especially considering the new formula of the 24-team World Cup, which takes up that of the European Football Championships: 6 groups of 4, the top 2 of each group and the 4 best third-placed teams advance. Consequently, a good placing can be worth a much easier round of 16 final, so it is very important to avoid ending up in the ironclad groups: the only way to do this is to stay ahead in the ranking. Italy is currently tenth in the ranking with 77.77 points, more than 4 ahead of Japan, 13th. To assign points, the ranking mainly evaluates the distance between the two teams and then the field factor. At the moment the chances of finishing in the second tier (and therefore having only one big opponent in the group) are excellent, even if to be truly calm Italy would need to make a big splash against Australia. Against South Africa, however, a defeat would be irrelevant, while a victory against Chile would not give any points but losing would mean losing 2 straight away, almost certainly ending up in the third tier: winning against the South Americans is therefore mandatory. In summary: if Italy doesn’t beat the Wallabies they will also have to keep an eye on what Wales, Japan and Georgia will do, who in turn would have to do some notable feats to overcome the Azzurri. As for the seeds, South Africa, Ireland and the All Blacks are practically certain. France is also almost certain but cannot afford to make mistakes against Fiji, while England will have to win the two direct clashes with Australia and Argentina to preserve the first pot: the fifth and sixth place, in fact, will be played by the English with the Wallabies and Pumas. One of them will end up in the second tier, while to get back into the game Scotland would have to work a miracle against the All Blacks, and Fiji would have to do the same against England and France. Having said that Italy is almost certain of the second tier, the last two places available will be played by Georgia, Wales and Japan. The Welsh absolutely must beat the Japanese in the direct clash, or take home an important scalp between Argentina, New Zealand or South Africa, otherwise the risk of finishing sensationally in the third tier would be very high.

the matches

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Ireland v All Blacks opens play alongside England v Australia on November 1. On the weekend of 8-9 November we start to get serious, because practically everyone is playing: Scotland will try to achieve the feat against New Zealand, France – as mentioned – will challenge South Africa in Paris to erase the disappointment of two years ago. Italy will face Australia at 6.40pm on Saturday: the Azzurri want to replicate the feat of 3 years ago in Florence, while the Wallabies want to erase it forever. Sunday will end with Wales-Argentina. The weekend of November 15-16 will begin with Italy, which will challenge the South Africa at the Juventus Stadium at 1.40pm. In the afternoon, a great match between England and New Zealand, and then Ireland-Australia, France-Fiji and Scotland-Argentina on Sunday, which could be worth a place among the top seeds in the World Cup. On the weekend of 22-23 November we start with Georgia-Japan and Wales-All Blacks, two key matches from a second-tier perspective. Then the great match between Ireland and South Africa before France-Australia and Italy-Chile at 9.10pm. Then on Sunday there is England-Argentina, a never banal match, before the prologue on 29 November between Wales and South Africa.

the ranking before the test matches

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This is the starting ranking before the test matches: 1st South Africa 92.20 points, 2nd New Zealand 90.02, 3rd Ireland 89.83, 4th France 87.82, 5th England 87.64, 6th Argentina 83.82, 7th Australia 83.40, 8th Scotland 81.57, 9th Fiji 81.16, 10th Italy 77.7711th Georgia 74.69, 12th Wales 74.05, 13th Japan 73.25, 14th Spain 69.12, 15th USA 67.40, 16th Samoa 66.94, 17th Chile 66.72, 18th Tonga 66.66, 19th Uruguay 66.59, 20th Portugal 66.44, 21st Romania 62.67, 22nd Belgium 61.20, 23rd Hong Kong 59.98, 24th Canada 59.20, 25th Zimbabwe 58.80.