Disappointed NSC members simply crossed over to the CDA again. That was one of the quick conclusions heard on election night. But out research into ‘voter movements’ a more nuanced picture emerges from Ipsos on behalf of the NOS.
More than a quarter of the CDA gain (from five to eighteen seats in the latest forecast) appears to indeed come from NSC voters from 2023, but a third of current CDA voters still voted D66, VVD and JA21 in the previous elections (18, 11 and 10 percent respectively).
The sample among a representative group of 3,500 voters also shows that 22 percent of former PvdA and GroenLinks voters voted D66 this time. That approximately corresponds to the five seat loss that the new merged party suffered.
On the D66 side, those ‘crossers’ represent 11 percent of the voters. Of the D66 voters, 66 percent also voted D66 in the previous elections; the rest comes from CDA (7 percent) and VVD (3 percent) and some smaller parties.
The total number of radical and extreme right-wing seats remains virtually the same at 42 (was 41) if you ignore the loss of the BBB. But according to the research, those voters do not seem to have much of a foothold. For the PVV, only 52 percent remained loyal to the party this time; PVV voters from 2023 now left for VVD, JA21, FVD (9, 8 and 6 percent respectively); 11 percent did not vote, and 5 and 3 percent of the PVV members left for D66 and CDA respectively.
Conversely, JA21 actually benefited from the PVV (30 percent), but 23 percent of former NSC voters now also chose JA21. 63 percent of the FVD also voted for that party in the previous elections, and 8 percent of the new voters came from the PVV.
2023 BBB voters were disloyal to the party; less than a quarter (24 percent) voted BBB again. The loss of seats (from 7 to 4) appears to benefit VVD, D66 and JA21 more or less equally (14, 11 and 10 percent). By the way, approximately as many PVV members crossed over to BBB as BBB members crossed in the opposite direction.
The Party for the Animals remained the same in seats (3), but only half of the voters voted for this party in the previous elections. The VVD showed roughly the same thing: 59 percent also voted VVD last time; former PVV and NSC votes now together make up a quarter of the VVD vote.
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