Turret beckons for Timmermans: PVV drops in latest polls, while Jetten is close behind

With 23 to 29 seats, the PVV is still the largest party in the polls by Ipsos I&O and EenVandaag, but Geert Wilders loses significantly in both forecasts. GL/PvdA remains stable with around 24 seats, giving Frans Timmermans a good chance of taking the lead in the formation.

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This also applies to D66, which even won eight seats in the EenVandaag poll, rising to 24 seats. Henri Bontenbal (CDA) fluctuates around 20 seats in both polls after his statement about the reformed schools. VVD is recovering slightly at the expense of JA21, which drops to 8 seats in the EenVandaag poll.

Strategic voice is decisive

According to Ipsos I&O, the strategic vote will determine who will be the largest party on October 29. The researchers argue that this especially applies to the progressive left, where GL/PvdA and D66 are each other’s biggest competitors. Jetten beats Timmermans mainly in terms of popularity, says Ipsos I&O. After Bontenbal, Jetten is most appreciated by all voters.

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According to the research agency, Timmermans therefore mainly relies on draining other left-wing parties such as the Animal Party, the SP or Volt. D66 can still win voters from GL/PvdA and the CDA. D66 can also make small gains with the VVD.

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On the right, the researchers mainly note doubts about government participation. According to Ipsos I&O, some of the PVV voters are looking at JA21 because that party may be able to participate in government, although the same doubters still consider JA21 too small to actually pull a cabinet to the right.

Overview of recent polls