The credit insurer Allianz Trade expects a global increase in corporate insolvencies in the coming year. This is probably the fifth increase in a row, said the Allianz subsidiary from Paris and Hamburg. Analysts are forecasting five percent more bankruptcies than in the previous year.
In Germany, insolvency activity will remain at a high level next year: Allianz Trade is forecasting 24,500 cases, which corresponds to a slight increase of one percent. “In 2026, the number of cases will be higher than they have been in twelve years,” says the statement, which is available to the German Press Agency.
The consequences of trade conflicts could soon test the resilience of companies, said Allianz Trade boss Aylin Somersan Coqui. The risk of domino effects is increasing. New start-ups, which have accelerated in Europe and the USA, pose a further risk. Start-ups have a disproportionately high risk of becoming insolvent.
An end to the artificial intelligence (AI) boom similar to the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s could also trigger a shock, the study says. In Germany, around 4,000 additional bankruptcies would result if a potential AI bubble bursts.
A turnaround is expected to begin in 2027, especially in Germany: a decline in insolvencies is expected by around four percent to 23,500 cases. The authors base the forecast on the government’s economic stimulus measures, which had an effect. Globally, the expected decline is one percent.