Despite bombardments, the ceasefire is still holding – is a ‘Lebanon model’ at risk in Gaza?

The ceasefire in Gaza is holding for now. After a weekend in which new Israeli bombardments in the strip killed dozens of Palestinians, both Israel and Hamas say they will maintain the ceasefire. Just in time for the visit of US diplomatic duo Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on Monday – who come to discuss a second phase of the US-brokered deal. Vice President JD Vance may also travel to the region later this week.

Israel carried out the airstrikes after two Israeli soldiers were killed in an attack in the south of the coastal strip on Sunday. According to Hamas, another Palestinian group was behind the attack. This did not seem to be believed by Israel, which subsequently allegedly bombarded a Hamas tunnel complex where recently released Israeli hostages were being held. If it had been up to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners, Israel would not have left it at that. Both Bezalel Smotrich (Finance) and Itamar Ben-Gvir (National Security) advocated a full resumption of the war.

So what made the ceasefire last? The upcoming visit of the Americans? The fact that sixteen bodies of dead hostages have yet to return to Israel? Or was the violence a final convulsion of a war that has now ended?

Yellow line

Violence may flare up more often. Even in the days before Sunday’s large-scale bombings, Palestinians were killed daily by the Israeli army despite the ceasefire. Israel states that it shoots at people who come too close to the so-called yellow line, behind which the army has withdrawn. According to Gaza authorities, 11 members of one Palestinian family were killed on Saturday after Israel opened fire on the bus they were traveling in.

Analysts are already talking about the ‘Lebanon model’ – which would now be applied in Gaza, based on the ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah. Although that truce ended months of large-scale warfare between the two sides in November last year, Israel still bombs reportedly Hezbollah positions in Lebanon almost every week. At least 104 civilians were included for lifeaccording to the United Nations human rights organization.

But unlike Gaza, Lebanon has an internationally recognized government, which Israel and the United States at least hope will implement the promised disarmament of Hezbollah. For Gaza, on the other hand, there is little prospect of the international governing body announced by American President Donald Trump, which should take the place of Hamas and build up the coastal strip with the help of a multinational force.

Viable alternative

That is also why Witkoff and Kushner traveled to Israel again. “The success or failure [van de deal] will depend on whether Israel and this international mechanism are able to create a viable alternative to Hamas,” Kushner said on Sunday during an interview with Witkoff on the American television program 60 minutes. The Americans hope to further develop the second part of their plan during their visit. “The most important message we wanted to convey to Israeli leaders now,” Kushner said, “is that if you want to integrate Israel into the broader Middle East, you have to find a way to help the Palestinian people thrive.”

For the time being, this does not seem to be working. Israel temporarily halted the supply of humanitarian aid last weekend during a flare-up of violence, despite huge shortages in Gaza. Although some border crossings reopened on Monday, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees said to the BBC that the amount of aid allowed in Gaza is still “far too little”.

Hamas, in turn, is doing its best to show that it is still in charge in the parts of Gaza where the Israeli army has withdrawn, including by carrying out public executions in Gaza City.

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