In the final stretch towards the legislative elections on October 26, the province of Buenos Aires became the hottest scene in the country. There, a real poll war is being fought between the ruling party of La Libertad Avanza (LLA) and the opposition grouped in Fuerza Patria (FP). The measurements, far from a consensus, reflect a society divided in the middle: depending on who measures, the result changes sign, but everyone agrees that the election will be defined by minimal margins.
According to Proyección Consultores, between October 8 and 14, FP obtained 42.3% of voting intention in the province compared to 31.5% for LLA. In that measurement, Jorge Taiana surpasses Diego Santilli (37.4% against 30.2%). At the national level, the trend is reversed: libertarians lead with 36.4% compared to 34% for Peronism. The same study details that 60.8% of Buenos Aires residents negatively evaluate Javier Milei’s management, while 53.1% disapprove of Axel Kicillof’s.
For its part, a poll by Rubikon Consultores, carried out on October 11 and 12, shows LLA with 34.6% nationwide and FP with 32.2%, also pointing out that after Milei’s show at the Movistar Arena his image suffered a deterioration: 31% said that their opinion of the President worsened and only 10.6% said that it improved.
In this context, political interpretations bifurcate. Sources close to Peronism trust that the persistent economic crisis and the fall in purchasing power “will end up taking their toll on the libertarian government,” especially in the suburbs. “There is anger and disappointment, people feel that they are not making ends meet,” they admit in Taiana’s environment. From the libertarian side, however, those close to Milei maintain that society “may be angry, but it does not want to return to Peronism” and that the anti-Kirchnerist vote continues to be a strong asset.
Both consultancies agree on one point: polarization is extreme. LLA retains a support floor of 30%, but also a rejection of 35%. FP, for its part, has a ceiling of 58% with a negative image level of 41.8%. The room for growth is slim, and every percentage point can be decisive.
With the economy as a backdrop and distrust as a social climate, Buenos Aires is once again the thermometer of the country. There, not only a legislative election is defined, but the balance of power that will mark the rest of Javier Milei’s mandate.
