The provinces want the cabinet to reserve money in advance in case new relaxations of the nitrogen calculation rules do not stand up in court. The provinces, which are responsible for implementing the nitrogen policy, are afraid that they will be held liable by companies that make use of the relaxations.
A spokesperson for the Interprovincial Consultation (IPO) confirms this NRC. It is unclear what amount the provinces are considering.
The IPO also wants the government to take more measures to reduce nitrogen emissions. The package of measures presented so far by Minister Femke Wiersma (Agriculture, BBB) is not sufficient, the IPO believes. Additional measures must be taken as ‘part of a responsible overall package’.
VVD and BBB, the two remaining coalition parties, agreed on Friday that the calculation rules of the nitrogen model will be relaxed. It revolves around the so-called ‘arithmetic lower limit’. By increasing this, it becomes easier to build homes, build roads and highways and expand farms, without having to reduce nitrogen emissions.
Aerius
This all revolves around the nitrogen calculation model Aerius, which calculates how much of each project that emits nitrogen ends up on vulnerable nature. The arithmetic lower limit determines from what value a permit is required. Now that is 0.005 mol per hectare, per year – that becomes 0.5 mol (about 7 grams).
According to Minister Wiersma, this higher lower limit is based on science. She bases this on the London professor Arthur Petersen. Earlier this year, he claimed in a so-called ‘expert opinion’ that Aerius is not accurate enough to attribute small amounts of nitrogen in nature reserves to a specific company.
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However, there is no scientific consensus. The ministry had this expert opinion reviewed by 15 other scientists and experts. About half of them did not agree with Petersen’s conclusion.
Relaxing the calculation limit has led to tensions in the outgoing cabinet in recent weeks. VVD argued for caution and wanted to first legally test the arithmetic lower limit in a trial process.
However, with the elections approaching, coalition partner BBB did not want to wait any longer. The BBB already announced on X that it “will not tolerate any further opposition.” Party chairman Caroline van der Plas said this week in an interview with NRC “getting a bit fed up” with the opposition of the VVD.
The parties agreed on the relaxation on Friday. In principle, this should come into effect in January 2026. The condition is that the calculation limit is “legally tenable”. Environmental organizations have already announced that they will challenge the increased arithmetic lower limit in court. If the relaxation is rejected in court, companies will still need a permit.
The Council of State already called the increase “vulnerable” in an opinion and warned that it will not stand up in court without measures to reduce nitrogen emissions.
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80 to 90 percent
The Dutch provinces are in favor of the arithmetic lower limit, if the conditions are met. Solving major social problems – such as the housing shortage and the energy transition – is now being delayed due to the stalled permit granting.
Previous research by the provinces showed that approximately 80 to 90 percent of permit applications would no longer be necessary by increasing the calculation limit. Many PAS reporters can also be legalized if the calculation limit is increased. PAS reporters are livestock farmers who farmed without a permit after the previous nitrogen policy collapsed in 2019. Only a handful of them have now been helped with the required permit.
It is unclear how much additional nitrogen emissions the increased calculation limit will lead to. Critics point out that the more flexible rules will contribute to additional burden on nature, which is already struggling with nitrogen values that are far too high. Nitrogen precipitation is too high in more than two-thirds of nitrogen-sensitive nature.
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