Gold hurries from record to record and is considered a safe haven for many investors. But while some experts see further potential, others already warn of signs of exaggeration.
• Central banks and investors drive the demand for gold, which supports the rally
• Critics refer to falling real returns and psychological factors as possible drivers
• Whether gold is in a solid upward movement or already in a bubble is controversial
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Why gold is on record hunt
The yellow precious metal has already reached new highs this year. The price has risen by around 43 percent since the beginning of the year, as strong as it has not been in decades. Recent events have fueled the rally: falling returns in US state bonds and a weaker US dollar additionally heat the demand for gold.
Monetary policy also plays a role: the recent interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have made gold more attractive. Since the precious metal does not remove any interest, investors are increasingly accessing when fixed -interest systems bring in fewer returns.
Central banks as the motor of the safe ports
In addition to short -term factors, long -term demand also contributes to the upswing, because gold has always been considered a classic safe port, which investors rely on in times of geopolitical uncertainties and high public debt. Cultural traditions also play a role: in India and China, possession of physical gold is deeply rooted.
However, the role of central banks is particularly important. According to Wallstreet online, emerging countries in particular have been buying larger amounts of the precious metal for years to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. The recent assessment of the US investment bank Goldman Sachs shows that the rally is far from over from the perspective of some experts. This expects the gold price to reach new records by 2026.
Between protection and speculation – threatens a bubble?
Despite this strong demand, there are doubts. Bloomberg columnist Aaron Brown writes that the current increase has less to do with inflation or geopolitical crises, but above all with falling real interest. Many investors now accept high opportunities, which is an indication of speculative exaggeration for some experts.
Marketwatch also discusses whether the yellow precious metal is already in a bladder. On the one hand, there is no evidence of overheated option markets that are typical of speculation. On the other hand, the price is now clearly above the previous record of 1980. This could be a warning signal that should keep investors in mind.
Whether it is only a robust bull market or a dangerous bladder remains open. However, it is clear: between safe port, massive central bank purchases and growing speculation, the precious metal remains one of the most exciting markets of the year.
Editor finance.net
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