In July 2024, the dollar at $ 1,500 takes us back to a critical scenario similar to the current one, but aggravated by an adverse choice that substantially changes expectations.
The reserves of the Central Bank, which officially exceed US $ 39,000 million, are a mirage. This figure includes swaps with China, gold, bank deposits and other commitments. The raw reality is revealed by observing the net reserveswhich are the ones that the BCRA can use to intervene.
According to various analysis, these net reserves vary from US $ 12.8 billion negative Even, on the most optimistic stage, USD 7,000 million. It’s like trying to turn off a forest fire with a garden hose.
The last sale of more than US $ 1 billion by the BCRA in the last three wheels of the week before September 22 to contain the dollar was not a sign of strength, but of despair. The country risk, which shot 1,516 points, interpreted it in the same way.
Argentine logic: buy expensive because it will be more expensive. Here Argentine psychology comes into play, which challenges any economy manual. While in the rest of the world a price increase reduces demand, the opposite occurs in Argentina: when the dollar rises, More people run to buy it.
In this country, “is expensive” translates into “buy fast before it is more expensive.” This behavior is not irrational, but the result of a story that has taught us that the dollar always tends to rise.
This “preventive panic” is a collective memory recorded over fire by the corralito, hyperinflation and confiscations. Argentines learned that weight is not a value reserve, and that lesson is indelible.
Every dollar sold, one less bullet. The Central Bank faces a dilemma: every time it sells dollars to contain the rise, the market interprets it as weakness, not as strength.
It is like a poker player who uploads the bet to intimidate, but each file that puts on the table is one less for the end of the game. The first time impresses, but everyone knows that ammunition is limited. And the players of this game are “old acquaintances.”
With net reservations, at best, from USD 7,000 million, and a rhythm of sale of USD 678 million per day, ammunition would last just two weeks.
The November mental experiment. Imagine that we are in November 2025, after the elections. Today we have three possible scenarios, but since November, only one will have been completed and it will seem obvious:
-If there is stability: “Of course, the numbers were fine.”
-If everything explodes: “It was obvious, with that dollar psychology …”
-If the government changes: “The wear was inevitable.”
The trap lies in the fact that our current decisions will determine which of these futures materializes. With a demand for dollars that grows when the price goes up, any small impulse can become a slide.
The really important battle. Economic foundations can be solid, but in Argentina the real economy is not a function of numbers, but of narratives.
The government that manages to gain the confidence of the people will be the one who dominates the dollar. Until then, the numbers will say one thing and the Argentines, guided by the logic of survival that give us decades of experience, will continue to act otherwise.
We are not dumb. We are experts to read between the lines a story that is repeated. In Argentina, expectations not only predict the future, they write it in real time.
* Sergio Candelo is Snoop Consulting Co Founder
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By Sergio Candelo
