After three declines in a row, the consumer climate in Germany ended its downward trend in September for the time being. According to the GfK and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decorations (NIM), the corresponding indicator increases by 1.2 points to minus 22.3 points for October. Analysts had expected a slight improvement, but on average only from an increase to minus 23.3 points.
A significant increased recovery are significantly increased consumer income expectations. On the other hand, both the purchase tendency and the economic expectations continue. In a long -term comparison, the consumer climate currently shows very weak values. Before the Corona pandemic, the indicator was stable in the positive area.
Afraid of war and worries about workplace
“After the consumer climate had previously dropped for three months in a row, it now ends its downward trend-at least for the moment,” said Nim consumption expert Rolf Bürkl. It remains to be seen whether this is the start of a sustainable turn. However, the overall climate continues to move at a very low level. Geopolitical uncertainties such as the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, worried jobs and increasing fear of inflation were stressful.
Reservation of larger purchases
The purchase tendency fell by 1.5 points to minus 11.6 points and thus reached the lowest level since June 2024. Despite better income expectations, high prices for food and energy and the general economic situation remained many consumers from larger purchases. The economic expectations also clouded. They fell to minus 1.4 points by 4.1 points – the worst value since January 2025.
In the short term, the Germans do not expect the economy to recover. Many economists had recently also corrected their growth forecasts downwards and only promised stagnation for 2025.
The consumer climate has been collected regularly since 1974 and is considered an important early indicator for consumer behavior. For the study, around 1,000 people are interviewed every month on behalf of the EU Commission.