The recent study by Zuban Córdoba confirms what was already felt in the streets: The government of Javier Milei lost political central Spagnuolo case and the dissemination of corruption audios in the National Disability Agency, published by the journalist Mauro Federico. The national ruling found in these episodes a breakdown that transformed social perception: the image of “purity” and “honesty” that Milei tried to build cracked in a matter of weeks.
The survey shows that More than 60% of the population negatively evaluates the government and that the figure of Karina Milei touches 70% rejection. The numbers are devastating: Seven out of ten Argentines believe that the ruling party lost the elections in the province of Buenos Aires due to the combination of corruption and economic crisisand not because of the alleged weakness of its candidates. This diagnosis is key: people no longer conform to the narrative that “the problems are inherited” or that “local candidates were not up to it.” What is read in the Buenos Aires vote is a direct punishment to the libertarian power core.
The “coimates” in the area of disability, baptized by the opposition, not only hit the government’s moral flotation line, but undressed the fragility of its political structure. The study reveals that 68.6% of those accessed that the government was weaker after the audios were knownand 34% of libertarian voters admit to changing their suffrage for corruption that splashes Karina Milei and the Menem brothers.
The ruling error was double. On the one hand, he underestimated the power of the case, believing that society was anesthetized against complaints of corruption. On the other, He chose to shield those involved, when 60% of the respondents indicate that Milei should have asked for the resignation of his sister and the Menem. When holding them, the president sent a contradictory signal to his own electorate, who expected what he never obtained from the previous governments: coherence between the transparency discourse and the practice of government.
In this framework, Peronism – and especially Patria Force – managed to capitalize on wear without falling into the temptation of an empty triumphalism. Zuban Córdoba’s report warns that the opposition must administer this advantage, because the result was not a Peronist triumph, but a libertarian collapse. However, electoral arithmetic shows the unthinkable just one year ago: Peronism is again competitive nationwide and in the province of Buenos Aires supports a difference of ten points over freedom advances.
The panorama that emerges is that of a “perfect storm.” To the persistent inflation and the deterioration of wages is added the ethical erosion left by the Spagnuolo case. The punishment vote, as evidenced by the study, was not only expressed in Buenos Aires, but Anticipates an adverse scenario for October: 57% of those consulted say they will vote to punish Mileiagainst just 33% that seeks to reward it. It is the photo of a rearrangement and a society that, in the face of economic frustration, is not willing to tolerate corruption.
The political impact is deep. Milei built his figure on the promise of being “different”, of fighting the “caste” and governing without privileges. But the revelation that his intimate circle participated in alleged spurious maneuvers placed him in the same plane as his predecessors. The fall in trust is a structural fact: more than 65% consider that the government poorly manages the recent crises and 64% disapprove of its leadership style. Society perceives a wrong and, most serious direction, a president who seems unable to rectify.
What is coming is an uncertain terrain. The Peronist opposition is strengthened, but still loads with high rejection roofs. The ruling, meanwhile, faces the dilemma of sacrificing key pieces of his small table or persisting on a path that, according to 61% of Argentines, will lead him to new electoral defeats. Argentine politics, again, is at a breakdown. And what is glimpsed is not the consolidation of a new leadership, but the repetition of a cycle of frustrations.
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