Russia is not going to negotiate because she still believes she does not need it. It has soldiers, has ammunition, has buyers for its oil and has allies that do not say it, but they support it. And above all, he has a strategic reading that has served him for decades: if the adversary doubt, we must advance. Putin does not seek a glorious victory, seeks to resist until the other gets tired. While the United States launches threats, ultimatums and summons negotiations such as Alaska; Russia expands its offensive and takes advantage of every day as an opportunity to consolidate positions.
The numbers are overwhelming. Russia today has about 3.57 million troops if active soldiers, reservists and paramilitary forces are added. Only in the first quarter of 2025 increased its combat force by 22 %. Meanwhile, Ukraine faces a critical staff of personnel: men between 18 and 60 years of age cannot leave the country, but many are not in physical, psychological or logistics conditions to join the front. The volume difference is overwhelming and, in a wear war, that weighs.
The United States, meanwhile, maintains a structural strategic superiority that has not decided to use at all. It has all the letters: military capacity, leadership in the global financial system, influence on key allies and an unparalleled sanction power. The problem is not the lack of tools, but the political will to use them. Putin bets that they are not used since Trump’s power window is short with a congress by imposing obstacles if it loses the majority, which can occur in 2026. But if Trump wants to fulfill his promise to close the conflict with an agreement, he must act before, and depend on the support of the Democrats, historically tougher with Russia.
Trump’s ultimatum was read with ambiguity. At the time, he spoke of 50 days, but then he said that there were 10. He did not reduce the total term to 10 days, but shorten what was left to 10, which is an important nuance. However, that turn did not imply concrete actions, and in the meantime Russia continued its progress.
The idea behind 50 days was to allow Putin to win some land so that he could later declare that his objectives were met. But that did not happen, because Moscow read the gesture as a sign of weakness, as it always does. Dictatorships interpret pauses as opportunities. They are not tied to public opinion, or the press No cuts. And if the adversary doubt, they do not doubt.
Illegal Russian oil trade through opaque vessels, which in English is called Shadow Fleetand that could be translated as “ghost fleet”, is one of the weak points of the current sanctions system. As long as that route is still open, Russia will sell raw and finance the war. The United States may demand that every oil buyer who wants to maintain economic relations with the western world has a certificate of origin issued by US authorities. Without that certificate, oil is considered illicit and secondary sanctions are activated. It is a technical, concrete and legally viable measure.
Secondary sanctions are not limited to buyers, they can be applied to insurance companies, shipping companies, banks and ports that participate in the logistics of that ghost fleet. In addition, the United States can press China directly. China holds Russia in silence: it provides technology, commercial intermediation and key pieces. If Washington imposes secondary penalties to China as a country For your indirect help to Russia, the impact will be devastating. China is going through a deep internal crisis and cannot afford a break with the international financial system. He will not risk his stability to save Putin. That is another pressure point that the United States still did not use.
Dmitry Medvedev, meanwhile, is not a valid interlocutor, is an instrument of Kremlin, an occasional spokesman for state extremism. There is no good police and bad police: there is a bad police and a worse police; But the intimidation mechanism has already lost effect. Russian credibility is eroded, while the American, paradoxically, grows.
The last letter at stake is the military. The recent movements of nuclear submarines indicate that something changes and patience has a limit. But that will not be enough without visible, legal and diplomatic actions. It is not enough to have the deck, you have to play cards. And the cards are clear: mandatory oil certification, aggressive secondary sanctions, direct pressure on China and real control of logistics flows. That does not require a war, just decision.
The United States did not lose its power, it only needs to act beyond the gestures in Alaska and the welcome in the White House to the European allies of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Putin is committed to not doing so and that is why he does not negotiate: he still believes that the adversary prefers to speak to act. But if that changes, the story will change.
Things as they are
Mookie Tenembaum addresses international issues like this every week with Horacio Cabak in his podcast the international observer, available in Spotify, Apple, YouTube and all platforms.
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