Biden keeps West on course against Russia in three specially inserted summits

Europe continues to intrude. Joe Biden took office 14 months ago with the intention to focus on the challenge of the 21st century: the competition with China. Now he’s back in Europe – to keep a Western front afloat in a war with Russia. The farewell to Europe is yet to come.

Biden made his appearance on Thursday at three specially scheduled summits: NATO, the G7 and the EU. In the Western response to Putin’s war, NATO is responsible for defense and security, and the EU is focusing on sanctions, arms supplies, economic support and the reception of refugees. The G7, of which Japan is also a member, is important for the coordination of economic measures.

NATO is responding to Russian aggression with an increase in defense spending and a lasting reinforcement of the defenses of Eastern Europe. The seven rich countries did not agree on new sanctions on Thursday, but they did tackle the trade in Russian gold, which means that Moscow can no longer sell gold to support the ruble. The EU discussed the possibility of additional sanctions on Thursday, but an agreement was not signed early in the evening – an import ban on Russian energy remains a difficult hurdle to overcome.

Already as a presidential candidate, Biden declared that the world was caught in a big fight between autocrats and Democrats. He wanted to reunite the democratic world around the American flag. The autocratic threat was real, but felt distant. While Biden could suffice in December with a well-intentioned but noncommittal ‘democracy summit’, now the West must think under his leadership about sanctions, the use of chemical weapons and nuclear threats.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the meetings by video. In the morning he asked NATO the same military means to defend the Ukrainian population and cities as Russia deploys to attack. He asked NATO for 1 percent of its equipment, including tanks and aircraft. Zelensky also accused Russia of using phosphorus shells, without providing evidence. Biden warned earlier this week that Russia may use chemical weapons. NATO then decided to provide Kiev with protective equipment, medicines, and training for an attack with ABC weapons (atomic, biological and chemical).

On Thursday, it emerged that NATO’s Supreme Commander has also activated protection for its own troops against “chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear” threats. The public ‘evidence’ is indirect. NATO points out that Russia previously used chemical agents and now accuses the West and Ukraine of preparing chemical weapons in order to find an excuse to use them themselves.

Countless encounters

In the run-up to the war, the US forged a Western alliance. After initial complaints from the Baltic countries, who felt they had been passed over, the adage became: no decisions about Europe without Europe. In countless diplomatic meetings, the Atlantic bond was tightened, blurring the memory of the disruption Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump had deliberately caused.

At least Biden didn’t have to worry about attention on Thursday. In the corridors, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson skilfully hijacked Biden for a quick chat after the group photo, only to find that French President Emmanuel Macron, trailing behind, was walking quietly but inexorably between them.

Biden’s alliance lasted even after the war broke out. The summits marathon in Brussels and the subsequent visit by Biden to Poland this Friday are mainly intended to demonstrate unity. Two concepts were central to the NATO meeting, according to Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Tenacity, because NATO countries realize that the conflict can go on for a long time, and unity. As the war lasts longer, unity becomes more difficult.

NATO has a simple red line: no direct military confrontation with Russia, unless Russia attacks NATO territory. Eastern European countries, which feel themselves threatened, keep making proposals that help Ukraine but provoke direct military confrontation. This is certainly true of the establishment of a no-fly zone over Ukraine for which NATO would have to destroy Russian antiaircraft guns, which are located in Russia. And at this stage of the conflict, it also applies to Poland’s proposal to send a Western peacekeeping force. A peace force is really only possible if there is already a no-fly zone.

Now that the risk of ABC weapons is increasingly discussed, the question also arises of what NATO will do in that case – will the red line shift? Can the alliance still remain aloof? NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, who will be staying for another year, said the use of chemical weapons “would completely change the conflict”. Rutte said: “NATO is thinking about such issues.” Biden said an attack would not go unanswered and that the nature of the response is determined by the nature of the attack.

unity

Sanctions, the most important Western weapon against Russia, are also not very suitable for unity. Each country is mindful of its own interests and dependence. After four EU sanctions packages, the political discussion focuses on import embargoes on Russian fossil energy. Moscow partly finances the war with the sale of oil, gas and coal. Highly dependent countries – Germany and Italy – not only dread the economic consequences, but also wonder how to keep their societies going. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned that an immediate ban on Russian gas would lead to a recession.

The EU is working on a plan to cut Russian gas imports by two-thirds within a year. To make it easier for Europe to wean off Russian gas, the US should Being able to supply 15 billion cubic meters of liquid gasaccording to the Financial Times† The US and the EU would officially announce details this Friday, according to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The US supply would provide about a third of the European target. The Russian demand that energy should only be billed in rubles made little impression: all treaties are in dollars or euros, Scholz said with a shrug.

Meanwhile, competition with China has not disappeared, not as a structural challenge, not in the current war. The West believes that China has moved on the wrong side of the line by failing to condemn the attack and endorsing Putin’s complaints about NATO. The US warned China last week not to help Russia as well. The question now is how Beijing should be tackled. Biden hinted at economic consequences if China backs Moscow.

A summit between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and the EU summit is scheduled for next week. The question is how tough the EU will then take a stance. The Europeans sounded wary for the time being. Scholz dodged the demand for action against China. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said China was denounced neither at the NATO summit nor during the G7. “On the contrary, there is hope that China can contribute to a peace process.”

Putin’s war has already completely changed the relationship between the West and Russia. Putin’s war will also redefine ties with China – whatever choices China makes.