The data not only reflect electoral preferences: they translate emotions, disappointments, bronchs and searches for political sense in a scenario marked by polarization and disenchantment. The last report of the consultant Zuban Córdoba It makes it clear: after a year and a half of management, President Javier Milei faces a growing social rejection that, although he does not finish consolidating the traditional opposition, opens the door for a third way with Federal DNA.
The strongest data in the survey, held between July 15 and 18 on 1300 cases throughout the country, is the progress of the antimileism as political identitywhich reaches 53.6%, compared to 28.1% identified with mileism. It is a remarkable leap compared to the January (46.5%) and May (48.6%) records. This shift in social humor confirms that it is not only a disapproval of management, but a structural rejection that begins to crystallize as an emotional and political block.
The disapproval of national management rose to 56.8%the worst record since the beginning of the government, while just the 42.8% approve management. This also impacts the presidential figure: Milei’s negative image 55.3%while that of her vice president, Victoria Villarruel, is even worse (57.5%).
The deterioration in the perception of the ruling is not limited to the economic. When consulting those who would vote to punish the government, The destruction of the State and public policies (25.5%) and the perception of a “cruel” (15.4%) government appears among the main motivations, even above “the non -improvement of the economy” (13.1%). That is to say, What is punished is not only adjustment, but the form, narrative, aesthetics of libertarian power.
Even so, Kirchnerism does not capitalize on this discomfort. Only one 34.3% identifies today as Kirchneristin a scenario in which Antikirchnerism remains at 45.2%. The K brand, despite having recovered some land from the floor of 27.9% in January, remains tied to the wear of a cycle that many terminate.
In this context, a new scenario opens: The emergence of a third route based on the interior of the country. Specifically, the governors “of Centro” – today faced with Milei for funds, public works and political autonomy – could embody an alternative if they manage to articulate a coherent and differentiated proposal from the current poles.
The report suggests that there are conditions for this space to grow, if it manages to present itself as a “productivist” option, defender of health, education and public works, but without falling into the irresponsible fiscal logic of the past. That is, without denying the macroeconomic order, but with a strategic vision of the State, without being “fiscal degenerates”, but neither serial destroyers of the State.
The opportunity window is there. He 52.8% of the electorate says that he will vote to punish the national government in the next legislativeagainst 38.3% that will seek to reward it. Even among those who voted to Milei in the first round, 28.4% already anticipates a punishment votewhile among the voters of Schiaretti – electoral policy of this third way – the rejection reaches the 93.6%.
The data is not less if it is considered that Milei himself has chosen to confront with the governors and paradinate their territories. That could end up feeding, unintentionally, an alternative from the provinces. A kind of “party of the governors” that recovers the logic of institutionality, management and federalism.
For that to happen, that block should find leadership, narrative and programmatic coherence. It is not enough to resist adjustment. They must be shown as firm in your centrismdefending production over speculationhe Use on the chainsawand the education and health as an investment, not as expense.
In a country where 55.4% already consider that Milei “represents a risk to society”, and only 37.8% believe that “it remains the change”, the political capital accumulated in the first semester is eroded at speed. To this is added a deeper crisis: the 68% believe that their vote does impact decisionsbut More than 21% consider not going to vote in 2025a fact that anticipates hazards of abstention or political apathy.
In short, Milei is still competitive, but it is no longer hegemonic. Antimileism grows, Kirchnerism is not recomposed, and the political center – if it ceases to be only tactic and becomes a story and structure – could be transformed into a real option by 2027. That third way, federal, moderate but firm, could be the space that expresses those who today reject the save who can, but also fall out of the past.
It is still a germ, not a force. But if something teaching in Argentine politics, identities can be rebuilt, and intermediate spaces can also win elections. It will depend on your audacity, your vocation, and your ability not to repeat the mistakes of the old order.
By rn
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