Trumps higher import duties for Brazil must help former President Bolsonaro, but can have the opposite effect

50 percent. That was the import rate that US President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday on all imports from Brazil. According to him, that is necessary because of the “unfair trade balance.” He also explicitly linked the higher rates to the “unjust treatment” of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, shortly after Trump’s announcement, Brazilian President Lula da Silva announced countermeasures.

Bolsonaro, called the Tropical Trump, is on trial in Brazil for, among other things, an attempt to plan a state after the 2022 election results that he lost to Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro would also have had knowledge of a murder attack on, among others, Lula and Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes involved in various lawsuits against Bolsonaro. The former president can get a prison sentence of decades. He is excluded from participation in next year’s presidential election.

That Trump against Bolsonaro explicitly mentions as one of the reasons for the import rate was strongly convicted by Lula. This is seen as “foreign interference in a sovereign country.”

For many Brazilians, the announcement of Trump has provoked fierce reactions, because interference with internal affairs is very sensitive in this country. “Historically, Brazil has little to do with external interference, which can be seen as a colonial and an attack on the independence of Brazil,” says professor Oliver Stenkel of the Tulio Vargas Institute, a think tank in Brazil, in the Brazilian media. Even for many supporters of Bolsonaro, the threatening taxes of Trump, who should go into 1 August, go too far.

According to political analyst Marco Carvalho Teixeira, Trump’s decision can turn out to be beneficial for Lula because it strengthens nationalist feelings in Brazil. Normally it is the Ultrarrecht supporters of Bolsonaro who whips with nationalism. “Lula can take advantage of if he manages to put down the counterlines as a necessity to maintain the self -esteem and independence of Brazil.”

With his action, Trump tries to influence next year’s elections. But in Brazil the separation of powers functions, says Carvalho Teixeira. He sees a difference with the US where the stormers of the American Capitol received on January 6, 2021 from Trump Amnesty. After a similar event in the capital Brasilia where supporters of Bolsonaro destroyed and invaded government buildings on January 8, 2023, the stormers were given heavy prison sentences.

Innocence

Bolsonaro himself initially reacted cautiously. On social media he emphasized his innocence, and retweeted Trumps message that wrote that a witch hunt on Bolsonaro was going on.

Bolsonaro’s political allies made frantic attempts on Thursday to set the announced trading rates as the fault of Lula and his left -wing government. They have failed to keep the relationship with the United States good. Lula would also not play the geopolitical game smart enough.

Zoom in

Brazil imports from the US, among other things, machines and medicines while exporting products such as coffee, beef and oil to the US. Although according to Trump there is a skewed trade balance to the disadvantage of the US, figures show that the US exports more to Brazil than they import from that country.

High import duties, however, can have a major impact on the already struggling economy in Brazil, which suffers from high inflation.

Bolsonaro’s son

Trumps announcement follow a few months after the departure of Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of the ex-president, to the United States. Bolsonaro Junior is a congress member in Brazil and is seen as a potential successor to his father. He says he lives “in exile” in the US. Eduardo Bolsonaro tries to find support for his father in Ultrarrearly forces in and around the Trump government. He wants to take Trump to take steps against Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moares.

“The letter from the President of the United States only confirms that we have succeeded in conveying what we have presented so far with seriousness and responsibility,” said a reaction from Eduardo Bolsonaro in the media.

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