Who will take the race at the Tour de France 2025? Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard or an outsider? We asked the AI that created a comprehensive analysis based on the data from the 2025 cycling season. That is the result:
The Tour de France 2025 promises to become a spectacular duel between established champions and emerging talents. After comprehensive analysis of the 2025 season, current form and route properties, a clear favorite emerges, while several surprise candidates could cause excitement.
Pogačar’s dominant season 2025
Tadej Pogačar goes into the race as a home -high favorite. The 26-year-old Slovenian dominated almost every start in 2025 and already had one of the most impressive spring campaigns in cycling history.
His monument balance is breathtaking: Sieges at Strade Bianche (third Triumph), the Flanders Tour (second victory) and Liège-Bastogne-Liège (third success). Only at Paris-Roubaix he had to give up Mathieu van der Poel-but despite falling and tire breakdown, he was second in his Roubaix debut.
At the Critérium du Dauphiné, Pogačar underlined his tour ambitions with a dominant victory, in which he distanced Vingegaard by 59 seconds. This performance after the exhausting spring offensive shows its extraordinary condition for Grand Tours.
His team UAE Emirates-XRG with João Almeida (winner of the Tour de Suisse 2025) as a luxury eleger also offers ideal support for the fight for the fourth tour title.
Vingegaard as the only challenger
Jonas Vingegaard remains the only realistic challenger Pogačars. The Dane recovered remarkably from his severe fall in March and deliberately refrained from giro d’Italia to fully concentrate on the tour.
Simon Yates’ Giro-Triumph has additional importance for Vingegaard: His team-mate won the first Grand Tour race in 2025 after a dramatic weekend, which gives Visma lease a bike enormous self-confidence. Yates’ Sieg shows the team’s tactical class.
However, Vingegaard’s second place at the Dauphiné revealed crucial weaknesses: he currently lacks the explosive strength for Pogačar’s attacks. The mountainous tour route with 52,500 meters of altitude and only 44km time trial plays the cards in theory – but in practice it has to significantly increase its level.
Evenepoel experiences epidemic year
Remco Evenepoel lives through one of his most difficult seasons in 2025. The Belgian struggles after his severe training with persistent form problems after a disappointing spring. At the Dauphiné, he lost to Pogačar in the mountains over four minutes – an alarming sign for his tour ambitions.
Its time driving strength, usually a trump card, is severely limited by the few kilometers against the clock in the tour in 2025. Evepoel’s deficit at world-class level is currently too great for realistic chances of win.
Sieg forecasts for the top candidates:
1. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Emirates-XRG): 65% victory chance
Its current form according to the Monument wins is outstanding, the team strength with Almeida is optimal. The only risk: the exhausting spring offensive could take revenge.
2. Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease A Bike): 25% victory chance
Benefits from the giro waiver and the team confidence to Yates’ victory. But must catch up with the Dauphiné deficit and find explosive strength for Pogačar’s attacks.
3. Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quickstep): 6% victory chance
Fight with the weakest form for years. The mountainous route without adequate timeline plays against its strengths.
4. João Almeida (UAE Emirates-XRG): 3% victory chance
Shows excellent 2025 form with victories at Tour de Suisse and Romandia. As a Pogačars nominated noble helper, he could become a trump card if the Slovenia is problems.
5. Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe): 1% victory chance
The 24-year-old German has developed into a secret favorite. Also became third in the Dauphiné and even beat Evenepoel – as a Roglič helper with potential for an independent role.
Surprise candidates and outsiders
Matteo Jorgenson (Visma Lease A Bike) is considered an exceptional talent and showed his class several times. The climber combines power with tactical intelligence and could act independently as Vingegaard’s luxury helpers if the racing development is appropriate.
Simon Yates returns to the tour with enormous self-confidence after his emotional giro triumph. As Vingegaard’s teammate, the Brit could enable a double strategy or strike in the case of problems with the top favorites.
Other secret candidates are Primož Roglič (with full recovery to Giro-Sturz) and Isaac del Toro, who drove at the Giro until the penultimate stage in Rosa and shone as the best young driver.
Route analysis and tactical considerations
The most climbing -friendly route has been favors Pure mountain specialists for years with five mountain arrivals and minimal timelines. Key stages such as Hautacam, Mont Ventoux and Col de la Loze will decide the overall ranking.
Pogačar’s advantage: its versatility makes it less dependent on specific route characteristics. Vingegaards Chance: The mountainous route corresponds to its strengths, while his team Visma-Lease A Bike has the best tactical depth.
Despite the optimal route for climbers, Pogačar’s historic 2025 season and proven Grand Tour class speak for a fourth tour victory. His monument trilogy demonstrates world-class form on all terrains.
Vingegaard remains the only realistic challenger who benefits from the giro break and team strength to Yates’ Triumph. However, he has to make up for the Dauphiné deficit and find its explosive strength. The real surprise could come from the Vingegaard/Yates’s Vingegaard/Yates or promoters if the top favorites weaken.
AI forecast: Pogačar 65%, Vingegaard 25%, rest of the field 10%.
All analyzes are based on 2025 racing results, current performance data and route characteristics. As of: July 2025