Experts warn considerable consequences for the oil market, should the war between Israel and Iran continue and cannot be ended. A ceasefire was agreed whether this means the end of the conflict, but it remains to be seen.
• Oil prices so far comparatively stable
• Experts warn of long -term price jumps
• Blockade of the Hormus street as the greatest danger
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The United States has attacked military facilities in Iran, including institutions in connection with the Iranian nuclear program. This represents a massive step in the escalation of the Middle East conflict. Tehran then announced consequences and attacked a US base in Qatar. Donald Trump had recently surprisingly announced a ceasefire – but it remains to be seen whether he would actually lead to an end of the war. If this should not be done, according to some experts, a blockade of Hormus’ road will be conceivable in the future – one of the most important routes for global oil export.
Blockade of Hormus-Straße: The Worst Case Scenario for the Oil Market
“The negative risk scenario is a blockade of the Hormus road, the main artery for regional crude oil handling,” warned Robin Winkler, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, in a current analysis in accordance with the dpa news agency. “In this scenario, Brent oil prices could increase to $ 120 per barrel within a short time.”
Similarly, Carsten Brzeski, chief economist of the ING Bank, commented on the dpa: If the meter remains impassable in the long term, a price increase is even possible to $ 150 per barrel. This level was last achieved in 2008.
Oil prices react comparatively calmly – but how long?
But despite the dramatic geopolitical development, the oil market has so far been relatively caught. According to experts, there have been no visible failures of Iranian crude oil so far.
Nevertheless, the US investment bank Goldman Sachs warns in a new assessment in accordance with dpa: Even with a partial blockage of the meter for oil tankers and a one-month reduction in oil deliveries through the Hormus road by 50 percent, this Brent could drive to around $ 110, even if the deliveries then recover.
High oil prices risks: Economic consequences for Europe and Asia
A persistently high oil price would have a direct impact on economy and inflation. According to dpa, Winkler from Deutsche Bank expects an oil price thrust to $ 120 in Germany and the Euro zone Increased by around one percent of gross domestic product and would increase inflation by about one percentage point. “The current economic recreation would stop,” the economist continued to warn.
As dpa reports, Brzeski from the ING also emphasized that Iran, with a blockade of the merges, could also greatly annoy Asian countries such as China, since around 80 percent of the oil exports transported there flow towards Asia. This could also limit the geopolitical scope of Tehrans.
Look into the past: historical parallels illustrate risks
The story shows that conflicts with large regional oil producers can have significant effects on prices, according to JPMorgan, according to Investing.com. Change of regime – for example through coups, revolutions or political upheavals – regularly led to price jumps in the past. The bank has analyzed eight significant cases since 1979. The result: On average, oil prices rose from 76 percent from the outbreak to the climax of the respective crisis.
In the first phase of a conflict, prices increased by 5 percent on average, within three months by around 30 percent – before it stabilized at a permanently around 30 percent higher level. If the current conflict between Israel and Iran further tightened, according to Investing.com, similar price developments could be imminent.
“If the story serves as a guide, further destabilization Iran could lead to significantly higher oil prices that last for longer periods of time,” quotes investing.com. Because while short-term price fluctuations in the oil market are not uncommon, the Israel-Iran conflict, due to its geopolitical scope, has significant potential for sustainable fault of global energy supply.
Editor finance.net
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