It is always easier to start a war than to end up. It is a cliché, but one with a large core of truth, as it turned out during the unfortunate American intervention in Iraq more than twenty years ago. In short, a wise lesson that President Trump should have prevented from doing what he did on Sunday night: Iran attacking. During his election campaign, Trump himself made it a point that ‘America First’ also means that the US in the world wants to become less active in the world. On Sunday night he broke that promise. His country is now involved in a new, dangerous conflict.
With his decision to bomb various Iranian nuclear installations, Trump met the wishes of the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who does not have the heavy bombs to reach the deep -hidden facilities in Iran. In his explanation, Trump made it clear that he hopes that Iran can get to his knees in one go with this action, and that the conflict can therefore be over quickly as far as he is concerned. Whether this is realistic or wish thinking will have to be seen in the coming period, but the chance of escalation in the Middle East was not that great in a long time. To remain credible, the regime in Iran will want to hit hard, even if this is not possible immediately.
It is hoped that both the leaders of the Gulf States and the NATO member states can calm the minds at the top in The Hague next week. A challenge that is becoming increasingly complex. In addition to the current discussions about the limitation of Irans Nuclear program, the basis on which such conversations should be held – international law – is also increasing. Not least because the democracies that should defend this legal order, the members of the European Union first, act inconsistent and weak. Where Russia immediately received sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine, Israel is allowed to go its own way, whether it is in Gaza, the West Bank, Syria or Iran. And now the US is actively taking part, on the same rickety legal basis.
It is clear that the regime in Tehran is suppressing its own population. The fact that Iran is developing nuclear weapons is also clear, according to the IAEA atomic energy agency of the United Nations: the country has enough enriched uranium for nine nuclear bombs. However, it is not clear that it is an immediate threat to neighboring countries. Israel, who feels threatened by the decades -long war rhetoric of the Ayatollahs, has not provided any evidence a week ago that Iran was actually building a nuclear bomb. Nor the US. That is a violation of international law. No matter how reprehensible a regime, how threatening another country can feel, legal evidence is needed for an attack. That is the other lesson from Iraq from 2003, when the proof supplied by the US and the United Kingdom did not appear to exist for weapons of mass destruction.
Now that Trump is so sidelined in Iran, it is of the utmost importance that the EU will stand right in front of it. The only way ahead is diplomacy and respect for human rights and international agreements. With regard to Gaza, the EU is already seriously renouncing. If it is also going to do this with Iran, it will de facto help open the door to a world where only the right of the strongest still applies.