In our analyzes we pay particular attention to cyclical aspects. We particularly have an eye on the decade and US presidential cycle. We find constellations in which the two best -known cycles go hand in hand. Finally, the “seasonal intersection” between the two influencing variables is practically duplicate cyclical tailwind. 2025 is-according to the US presidential cycle. At the same time, it is logically a so-called “5-year”. The latter represents the best section within the decade cycle. How strong the cyclical tailwind is strong underlines the graphic adjacent. The Dow Jones® had to accept price losses on average in no month of the 5s. In contrast, the typical US substitution year is less ideal. No big jumps can be expected here in June. The period from August to October even brings three loss months in series. The highlight in between is July, which knows how to convince with above -average returns and with above -average hit rates. Another special feature is a Christmas rally in December.
Dow Jones Industrial Average® (Daily)
Source: LSEG, HSBC² / 5-year-old in the appendix
5 year chart Dow Jones Industrial Average®
Source: LSEG, Tradesignal²
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