It looks like a trivial question, however, which hides a concept linked to the opportunity and redistribution of the probability of victory. Does it seem complicated? A couple of examples will clarify the concept. Then as always, it is up to each of us to draw the due conclusions on the effectiveness of the call or fold

How many times do we find ourselves in front of a choice that, in our reasoning, can lead to a clash between couple and two overcard? We will have played hundreds of “flips” but today’s question concerns a specific case, that is, if it is strategically correct to play a coinflip to the pima hand of a tournament

Head or cross and I go home

Before going specifically, let’s imagine two friends who play one euro at the coinflip par excellence, head or cross. We know that we could double our initial booty and we also know that, based on the pre -established rules with friends, the challenge would end there. Without revenge. So let’s analyze the various dynamics: the investment is known (1 euro). The probability of victory is clear: about 50% Since a study has shown that the face facing upwards has a 1% advantage. In case of success, we double our monetary investment, in case of defeat instead we close in the negative. We also know, however, that by winning the launch we will have 100% success in the “tournament” since only one launch is made. Let’s see what changes, at the level of information, when instead we are with friends at a home tournament with classic prizes first, second and third classified

COINFLIP to the first hand of a tournament: do you play or not?

We sat at the table. We greeted everyone, the chips were divided equally and therefore you can officially start with the first hand. We are sitting on the big blind. The first player to speak, the UTG, goes directly alin. The whole table passes and you find you in the hands of K And start thinking. Psychological move of your rival who tells you “I show you your cards like this”, you accept and he turns 5 5. What to do? We are in full coinflip! We also analyze the situation here too. As soon as the probability of winning the tournament is sitting is equal. True: there are those who are better and those who less but hypothesize that we are 10 at the table. Each player has 10% probability of ending up in first place. If you play the coinflip and lose your chips are zero, you are eliminated and go home (or stay to look). If you win instead what happens? What double? Certainly chips (which however have no real value in a tournament), However, you have not won the tournament and therefore do not do 2x of the investment and above all to have twice the chips of the others after the first hand does not double your chances of victory. Do not go from 10% to 20%: this is because there is a sort of general redistribution of victory. A player has been eliminated, then 10%. A piece of that probability goes to all survivors. That’s why and better not to play that coinflip

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