Brussels hopeful about achieving CO2 reduction goals in 2030, but really clean industry still far away

The European Commission believes that it is not so bad with achieving the green objectives. An analysis of the national climate plans indicates that Europe is “lagging behind”. The emission reduction goal for 2030 seems to be in sight, according to the committee. Europe is also slowly heading for a share of 42.5 percent renewable energy.

The assessment of the ten-year plans (2021-2030) of the EU countries follows after a reprimand from the Commission in December 2023, whereby Brussels called on Member States to submit sharper climate plans. The expectation at the time was that the sum of national plans would only yield a greenhouse gas reduction of 51 percent in 2030, compared to an objective of 55 percent-and considerably different from the earlier 60 percent ambition of the European Parliament.

On Wednesday, the Commission states that the EU is “generally on track” to reduce the net greenhouse gas emissions by about 54 percent compared to the levels of 1990-provided that the Member States “fully implement” the existing and planned national measures and the EU policy.

Achieving the 2030 goals is the first important indicator on the way to the promise to be in 2050 CO₂-to be neutral and considerably less dependent on fossil fuels. “In the current-opolitical context, this shows that the EU fulfills its climate commitments,” said the committee’s press release.

That conclusion from the so -called NECPs (the National Energy and Climate Plans) of the Member States may be somewhat premature. The plans of four EU member states are missing in the assessment. Poland (the third largest EU country), Belgium and Estonia were absent when submitting their final climate plan, and have to do this as quickly as possible. The committee is still working on the final plan of Slovakia, which was submitted halfway through last month.

Less emissions, five Member States are behind

In addition, there is ‘ambition differences’ between sectors and member states – although the Commission does not mention countries and back numbers. The emissions of sectors that fall under the ESR (Effort Sharing Regulation)-such as transport, buildings, agriculture, small industry and waste-is expected to fall by 38 percent by 2030, compared to the levels in 2005 and set for a 40 percent objective. Five Member States must take ‘more action’ in this area.

Another pillar from the so-called ‘Fit for 55’ package-such as the series of laws to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions in the EU by at least 55 percent at the latest-is also known-concerns reduction and ‘carbon removal‘In the land use and forestry sector. Only nine EU countries expect to fall their goals in this area. This is the so-called ‘no debit’ rule, where the co₂emissions of land use and forestry are shifted by a similar recording of CO₂ From the sky. This is still a significant shortage. _{Europe must therefore focus on more trees.}

In the field of renewable energy, the EU target of 42.5 percent for 2030 is within reach, partly because renewable energy projects are stimulated. But, the committee states, “urgent measures” are needed to achieve “concrete results.” There is still an ambition gap of 1.5 percent. When it comes to energy efficiency, the final consumption must be reduced according to the committee. The national plans prescribe a reduction in end use by more than 8 percent-while the EU goal is almost 4 percent higher.

Electricity network

Although national plans show a reinforced energy security – due to reduced dependence on gas and diversification of energy sources – according to Brussels, “more specific plans and significant infrastructure upgrades” are needed to further support the transition and thus be able to cope with climate change and cyber threats. In addition, cross -border electricity connections must be improved and market barriers for service providers are removed.

Many national plans also lack specific components to support clean technology and energy-intensive industries. The Clean Industrial Deal, the large industrial plan of Brussels, must help Member States to strengthen Europe’s competitive capacity.

With the exception of comments, in the assessment of the plans, the committee sees a “solid basis” for the discussions about determining the climate objectives for 2024. They have been delayed for a few months now and are politically sensitive. Brussels decides to ‘intensify’ the cooperation with the Member States.

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