The Bitcoin -Halving was a spa driver for a long time – but this time the euphoria is missing. A year after the last Halving, Bitcoin recorded his weakest after-halving performance of all time.
• weakest halving performance of all time
• Changed market structure: Bitcoin ETFs and political uncertainties brake
• Lower volatility indicates more stable but less spectacular returns
Bitcoin-Halving loses effect
The so-called Bitcoin-Halving, in which the reward for mining new bitcoins is halved, was a guarantee of massive price gains in the past. Historically, the BitcoINURE always rose suddenly after the past three halvings. In the twelve months after the first Halving in 2012, it was incredible around 7,000 percent, the course plan was still 291 percent after the 2016 event. In the year after the 2020 event, the course increased by over 541 percent, as can be seen from data from the data provider Kaiko.
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Since the last halving on April 19, 2024, Bitcoin has only increased by a little over 43 percent – a historical low compared to the previous cycles. As the experts stated in their report, it is the “weakest performance after the halving since the beginning of the recording in percentage”.
Bitcoin ETFS, Trump & Co.
Kaiko’s analysts attribute the weak performance to several factors. On the one hand, the market structure changes due to the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, which weakens the dynamics of classic quotation shortages. On the other hand, economic policy uncertainties under President Trump put a strain on the mood on the financial markets, which also affects cryptocurrencies. “One of the most important changes [in diesem Bitcoin-Zyklus] Is the current macroeconomic regime-the interest has never been so high, “said Kaiko-Senior analyst Dessislava Aubert to Decrypt.” The current phase of high uncertainty “has also burdened the still greatest cryptocurrency.
The Economic Policy UncertaTiy Index, a measure of economic risks, was on average in the six months after the last Halving about a year ago, according to the Kaiko analysts. For comparison: In 2017, the index was an average of 107, 2016 at 109 and 2020 it was 186.
In addition, according to the experts, the maturity of Bitcoin could also play a role, because while the 60-day course volatility in 2012 was still over 200 percent, it was around 50 percent recently, the analysts from Kaiko noticed. “With increasing maturity of Bitcoin, it is now more likely that he will provide stable, although possibly more due returns compared to previous cycles,” quotes Marketwatch.
Difficulties for companies
For the hard-fought mining industry, the unvoidized strength is also problematic, because companies have been increasingly being forced to sell coins more in order to be able to cover their operating costs, as decrypt. Curtis Harris, Senior Director of Growth at Compass Mining, said that companies in the industry had increasingly difficulty passing. The lower BitcoIN course in combination with the unpredictable policy of Donald Trump “increase the loan costs, make miners more careful and brake investments in new mining companies”.
However, the developments are not quite surprising, which is why Miner could have prepared in advance, but at the same time emphasized Shanon Squires, Chief Mining Officer from Compass Mining. “Most miners make stable profits when they optimize their operating costs and run good business. Anyone who has built up their mining farm in the expectation of winning Bitcoin worth one million dollars today has not paid attention.”
Editor finance.net